Weekly Lines · 2022
Week 9.
13 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2022. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-2, +2.6u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 47-43, -1.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHI @  HOUThu, Nov 3 20:15 ET | HOU -14 | 45.5 | PHI 29 at HOU 17HOU -14 closed · HOU covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | NYJ -11 | 46 | BUF 17 at NYJ 20NYJ -11 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  CINSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | CIN +7 | 43 | CAR 21 at CIN 42CIN +7 closed · CIN covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | DET -4 | 49.5 | GB 9 at DET 15DET -4 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  NESun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | NE +5 | 40 | IND 3 at NE 26NE +5 closed · NE covered |
 LAC @  ATLSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | ATL -2.5 | 49.5 | LAC 20 at ATL 17ATL -2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  TBSun, Nov 6 16:25 ET | TB +3 | 43 | LA 13 at TB 16TB +3 closed · push |
 LV @  JAXSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | JAX -2.5 | 47.5 | LV 20 at JAX 27JAX -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIA @  CHISun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | CHI -4 | 46 | MIA 35 at CHI 32CHI -4 closed · CHI covered |
 MIN @  WASSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 43.5 | MIN 20 at WAS 17WAS -3 closed · push |
 SEA @  ARISun, Nov 6 16:05 ET | ARI +1.5 | 49.5 | SEA 31 at ARI 21ARI +1.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  KCSun, Nov 6 20:20 ET | KC +14 | 45 | TEN 17 at KC 20KC +14 closed · TEN covered |
 BAL @  NOMon, Nov 7 20:15 ET | NO -1 | 46 | BAL 27 at NO 13NO -1 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 56-35 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 59-39 (60%)
BAL @ NO - model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 15-6 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB, on turf 17-7 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 17-9 (65%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI - model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
TEN @ KC - model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, won last week 16-8 (67%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 141-111 (56%)
MIN @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 113-76 (60%)
IND @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 200-157 (56%)
CAR @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 90-71 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.