Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 1.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 6-6, -0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DET @  KCThu, Sep 7 20:20 ET | KC +4 | 53 | DET 21 at KC 20KC +4 closed · DET covered |
 ARI @  WASSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | WAS +7 | 38 | ARI 16 at WAS 20WAS +7 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 40.5 | CAR 10 at ATL 24ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | CLE -1 | 46.5 | CIN 3 at CLE 24CLE -1 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Sep 10 20:20 ET | NYG -3.5 | 44.5 | DAL 40 at NYG 0NYG -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | CHI +1 | 41 | GB 38 at CHI 20CHI +1 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  BALSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | BAL +9.5 | 43.5 | HOU 9 at BAL 25BAL +9.5 closed · BAL covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | IND -4 | 45.5 | JAX 31 at IND 21IND -4 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | SEA +4.5 | 45 | LA 30 at SEA 13SEA +4.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  DENSun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | DEN +3 | 43 | LV 17 at DEN 16DEN +3 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  LACSun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | LAC +3 | 50.5 | MIA 36 at LAC 34LAC +3 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  NESun, Sep 10 16:25 ET | NE -3.5 | 44.5 | PHI 25 at NE 20NE -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  PITSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | PIT -1.5 | 41.5 | SF 30 at PIT 7PIT -1.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  MINSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | MIN +4 | 45 | TB 20 at MIN 17MIN +4 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  NOSun, Sep 10 13:00 ET | NO +3 | 41 | TEN 15 at NO 16NO +3 closed · TEN covered |
 BUF @  NYJMon, Sep 11 20:15 ET | NYJ -2.5 | 44.5 | BUF 16 at NYJ 22NYJ -2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 50-30 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
LV @ DEN - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 88-55 (62%)
TEN @ NO - model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 35-22 (61%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
DAL @ NYG TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
PHI @ NE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
HOU @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
TEN @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
GB @ CHI TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
ARI @ WAS TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
MIA @ LAC TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.