Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 13.
13 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -0.4u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 70-70, -4.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  DALThu, Nov 30 20:15 ET | DAL +9.5 | 47.5 | SEA 35 at DAL 41DAL +9.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ARI @  PITSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | PIT +6 | 41 | ARI 24 at PIT 10PIT +6 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NYJSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | NYJ -2 | 33 | ATL 13 at NYJ 8NYJ -2 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Dec 3 16:05 ET | TB +4 | 37 | CAR 18 at TB 21TB +4 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  LASun, Dec 3 16:25 ET | LA +3.5 | 39.5 | CLE 19 at LA 36LA +3.5 closed · LA covered |
 DEN @  HOUSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | HOU +3.5 | 47.5 | DEN 17 at HOU 22HOU +3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 DET @  NOSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | NO -4 | 47.5 | DET 33 at NO 28NO -4 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | TEN -1.5 | 42 | IND 31 at TEN 28TEN -1.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  GBSun, Dec 3 20:20 ET | GB -5.5 | 43.5 | KC 19 at GB 27GB -5.5 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  NESun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | NE -4.5 | 38.5 | LAC 6 at NE 0NE -4.5 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  WASSun, Dec 3 13:00 ET | WAS -8.5 | 50 | MIA 45 at WAS 15WAS -8.5 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  PHISun, Dec 3 16:25 ET | PHI -3 | 46.5 | SF 42 at PHI 19PHI -3 closed · SF covered |
 CIN @  JAXMon, Dec 4 20:15 ET | JAX +10 | 41 | CIN 34 at JAX 31JAX +10 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
KC @ GB - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 69-45 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 84-55 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LAC @ NE - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 116-74 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 67-43 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIA @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
DET @ NO - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, worse record 57-37 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, worse record 78-52 (60%)
SF @ PHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 95-62 (60%)
- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
ARI @ PIT TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
CLE @ LA TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
MIA @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 59-28 (68%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.