Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 12.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -4.7u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 66-66, -4.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  DETThu, Nov 23 12:30 ET | DET +8.5 | 47 | GB 29 at DET 22DET +8.5 closed · GB covered |
 SF @  SEAThu, Nov 23 20:20 ET | SEA -7 | 43.5 | SF 31 at SEA 13SEA -7 closed · SF covered |
 WAS @  DALThu, Nov 23 16:30 ET | DAL +13 | 48 | WAS 10 at DAL 45DAL +13 closed · DAL covered |
 MIA @  NYJFri, Nov 24 15:00 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 40 | MIA 34 at NYJ 13NYJ -9.5 closed · MIA covered |
 BAL @  LACSun, Nov 26 20:20 ET | LAC -3 | 49 | BAL 20 at LAC 10LAC -3 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  PHISun, Nov 26 16:25 ET | PHI +2.5 | 49 | BUF 34 at PHI 37PHI +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 CAR @  TENSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | TEN +3.5 | 36 | CAR 10 at TEN 17TEN +3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 CLE @  DENSun, Nov 26 16:05 ET | DEN +1.5 | 37.5 | CLE 12 at DEN 29DEN +1.5 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 48 | JAX 24 at HOU 21HOU -1 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  LVSun, Nov 26 16:25 ET | LV -9 | 42.5 | KC 31 at LV 17LV -9 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Nov 26 16:05 ET | ARI -3 | 45 | LA 37 at ARI 14ARI -3 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  NYGSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | NYG -4.5 | 36.5 | NE 7 at NYG 10NYG -4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | ATL -2 | 42 | NO 15 at ATL 24ATL -2 closed · ATL covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | CIN -2 | 36 | PIT 16 at CIN 10CIN -2 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  INDSun, Nov 26 13:00 ET | IND +2.5 | 45 | TB 20 at IND 27IND +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 CHI @  MINMon, Nov 27 20:15 ET | MIN +3 | 43.5 | CHI 12 at MIN 10MIN +3 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ LAC - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, in a dome 16-8 (67%)
CHI @ MIN - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 58-36 (62%)
WAS @ DAL - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 40-22 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 55-32 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
CLE @ DEN - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 80-53 (60%)
JAC @ HOU - model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 75-50 (60%)
NE @ NYG - model likes them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, on turf 35-23 (60%)
NE @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
BUF @ PHI TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 56-35 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.