Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 15.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +1.6u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 79-80, -9.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LAC @  LVThu, Dec 14 20:15 ET | LV +3 | 36 | LAC 21 at LV 63LV +3 closed · LV covered |
 DEN @  DETSat, Dec 16 20:15 ET | DET +5.5 | 49 | DEN 17 at DET 42DET +5.5 closed · DET covered |
 MIN @  CINSat, Dec 16 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 41.5 | MIN 24 at CIN 27CIN +3 closed · push |
 PIT @  INDSat, Dec 16 16:30 ET | IND +1.5 | 41.5 | PIT 13 at IND 30IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 32 | ATL 7 at CAR 9CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 BAL @  JAXSun, Dec 17 20:20 ET | JAX -4 | 42.5 | BAL 23 at JAX 7JAX -4 closed · BAL covered |
 CHI @  CLESun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | CLE +3 | 38 | CHI 17 at CLE 20CLE +3 closed · push |
 DAL @  BUFSun, Dec 17 16:25 ET | BUF +2 | 49.5 | DAL 10 at BUF 31BUF +2 closed · BUF covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 38 | HOU 19 at TEN 16TEN +3 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  NESun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | NE -10 | 39.5 | KC 27 at NE 17NE -10 closed · push |
 NYG @  NOSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | NO +6 | 39.5 | NYG 6 at NO 24NO +6 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | MIA +7.5 | 36 | NYJ 0 at MIA 30MIA +7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Dec 17 16:05 ET | ARI -12.5 | 48 | SF 45 at ARI 29ARI -12.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  GBSun, Dec 17 13:00 ET | GB +4 | 41.5 | TB 34 at GB 20GB +4 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  LASun, Dec 17 16:05 ET | LA +6.5 | 48.5 | WAS 20 at LA 28LA +6.5 closed · LA covered |
 PHI @  SEAMon, Dec 18 20:15 ET | SEA -5 | 46 | PHI 17 at SEA 20SEA -5 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CAR - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 88-55 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAC @ LV - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 69-45 (60%)
CHI @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 95-62 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 95-62 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
NYG @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
LAC @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
KC @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 59-28 (68%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.