Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 4.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-9, -4.9u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 31-26, +3.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DET @  GBThu, Sep 28 20:15 ET | GB -2.5 | 45 | DET 34 at GB 20GB -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Oct 1 16:25 ET | SF +15 | 44 | ARI 16 at SF 35SF +15 closed · SF covered |
 ATL @  JAXSun, Oct 1 09:30 ET | JAX +3.5 | 42.5 | ATL 7 at JAX 23JAX +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | CLE -2 | 38.5 | BAL 28 at CLE 3CLE -2 closed · BAL covered |
 CIN @  TENSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | TEN -2.5 | 41.5 | CIN 3 at TEN 27TEN -2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 DEN @  CHISun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 47 | DEN 31 at CHI 28CHI -3 closed · push |
 KC @  NYJSun, Oct 1 20:20 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 41.5 | KC 23 at NYJ 20NYJ -9.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 LA @  INDSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 44.5 | LA 29 at IND 23IND -1 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  LACSun, Oct 1 16:05 ET | LAC +7 | 49 | LV 17 at LAC 24LAC +7 closed · push |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 53 | MIA 20 at BUF 48BUF +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 MIN @  CARSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | CAR -4.5 | 46.5 | MIN 21 at CAR 13CAR -4.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  DALSun, Oct 1 16:25 ET | DAL +6.5 | 43 | NE 3 at DAL 38DAL +6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 PIT @  HOUSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | HOU -3 | 41.5 | PIT 6 at HOU 30HOU -3 closed · HOU covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | NO +4 | 41 | TB 26 at NO 9NO +4 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Oct 1 13:00 ET | PHI +9.5 | 43 | WAS 31 at PHI 34PHI +9.5 closed · WAS covered |
 SEA @  NYGMon, Oct 2 20:15 ET | NYG -2.5 | 46.5 | SEA 24 at NYG 3NYG -2.5 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CLE LOSS BAL -2 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 116-74 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 67-43 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CIN @ TEN WIN CIN -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 69-45 (60%)
DET @ GB LOSS DET -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
MIA @ BUF LOSS MIA +2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 42-26 (62%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, high total (48+) 28-18 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, division game 91-59 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
SEA @ NYG LOSS NYG +2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, on turf 47-29 (62%)
TB @ NO WIN TB +4 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 34-18 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, in a dome 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 61-38 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ PHI WIN WAS +9.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 69-45 (60%)
TB @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
BAL @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
SEA @ NYG TOTALLOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
NE @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
LA @ IND TOTALWIN Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
ATL @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.