Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 9.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-5, -2.5u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 55-52, +4.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN @  PITThu, Nov 2 20:15 ET | PIT +3.5 | 37 | TEN 16 at PIT 20PIT +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 ARI @  CLESun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | CLE +13 | 38 | ARI 0 at CLE 27CLE +13 closed · CLE covered |
 BUF @  CINSun, Nov 5 20:20 ET | CIN +1.5 | 51 | BUF 18 at CIN 24CIN +1.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CHI @  NOSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | NO +9 | 42 | CHI 17 at NO 24NO +9 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Nov 5 16:25 ET | PHI +3.5 | 46.5 | DAL 23 at PHI 28PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 IND @  CARSun, Nov 5 16:05 ET | CAR -1.5 | 45 | IND 27 at CAR 13CAR -1.5 closed · IND covered |
 LA @  GBSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | GB +3.5 | 38 | LA 3 at GB 20GB +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  KCSun, Nov 5 09:30 ET | KC +1 | 51 | MIA 14 at KC 21KC +1 closed · KC covered |
 MIN @  ATLSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 38.5 | MIN 31 at ATL 28ATL +3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  LVSun, Nov 5 16:25 ET | LV +1 | 38.5 | NYG 6 at LV 30LV +1 closed · LV covered |
 SEA @  BALSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | BAL +6 | 44.5 | SEA 3 at BAL 37BAL +6 closed · BAL covered |
 TB @  HOUSun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | HOU +2.5 | 39.5 | TB 37 at HOU 39HOU +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  NESun, Nov 5 13:00 ET | NE +2.5 | 40.5 | WAS 20 at NE 17NE +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 LAC @  NYJMon, Nov 6 20:15 ET | NYJ -3 | 41 | LAC 27 at NYJ 6NYJ -3 closed · LAC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ BAL - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better record, worse QB 112-73 (60%)
LAR @ GB - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 72-41 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CHI @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, on turf 73-44 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), won last week, in a dome 48-30 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), won last week, in a dome 62-39 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NYG @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 56-44 (56%)
TB @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
LAC @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
MIN @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
WAS @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.