Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 14.
15 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -5.8u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 73-76, -10.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE @  PITThu, Dec 7 20:15 ET | PIT +6 | 30 | NE 21 at PIT 18PIT +6 closed · NE covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Dec 10 16:25 ET | KC +2 | 49.5 | BUF 20 at KC 17KC +2 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | NO +5.5 | 39 | CAR 6 at NO 28NO +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Dec 10 16:25 ET | LAC +3 | 45 | DEN 24 at LAC 7LAC +3 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 44.5 | DET 13 at CHI 28CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
 HOU @  NYJSun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | NYJ -3.5 | 33.5 | HOU 6 at NYJ 30NYJ -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 IND @  CINSun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 45 | IND 14 at CIN 34CIN +3 closed · CIN covered |
 JAX @  CLESun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 37.5 | JAX 27 at CLE 31CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 LA @  BALSun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | BAL +7.5 | 42 | LA 31 at BAL 37BAL +7.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  LVSun, Dec 10 16:05 ET | LV -3 | 40.5 | MIN 3 at LV 0LV -3 closed · push |
 PHI @  DALSun, Dec 10 20:20 ET | DAL +3.5 | 52.5 | PHI 13 at DAL 33DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Dec 10 16:05 ET | SF +14.5 | 44.5 | SEA 16 at SF 28SF +14.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Dec 10 13:00 ET | ATL +1.5 | 41.5 | TB 29 at ATL 25ATL +1.5 closed · TB covered |
 GB @  NYGMon, Dec 11 20:15 ET | NYG -6 | 37.5 | GB 22 at NYG 24NYG -6 closed · NYG covered |
 TEN @  MIAMon, Dec 11 20:15 ET | MIA +14 | 45 | TEN 28 at MIA 27MIA +14 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
JAC @ CLE - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 40-26 (61%)
DET @ CHI - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 61-38 (62%)
GB @ NYG - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 36-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 26-15 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ NYJ - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 80-53 (60%)
NE @ PIT - model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, low total (41 or under) 24-16 (60%)
SEA @ SF - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, won last week 73-47 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 69-45 (60%)
JAX @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
MIN @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
CAR @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.