Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 3.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-7, -1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 27-17, +8.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYG @  SFThu, Sep 21 20:15 ET | SF +10.5 | 43.5 | NYG 12 at SF 30SF +10.5 closed · SF covered |
 ATL @  DETSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | DET +3 | 47.5 | ATL 6 at DET 20DET +3 closed · DET covered |
 BUF @  WASSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | WAS -5.5 | 44 | BUF 37 at WAS 3WAS -5.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  SEASun, Sep 24 16:05 ET | SEA +5 | 42.5 | CAR 27 at SEA 37SEA +5 closed · SEA covered |
 CHI @  KCSun, Sep 24 16:25 ET | KC +13 | 48 | CHI 10 at KC 41KC +13 closed · KC covered |
 DAL @  ARISun, Sep 24 16:25 ET | ARI -11.5 | 43.5 | DAL 16 at ARI 28ARI -11.5 closed · ARI covered |
 DEN @  MIASun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | MIA +6 | 47.5 | DEN 20 at MIA 70MIA +6 closed · MIA covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | JAX +7.5 | 43.5 | HOU 37 at JAX 17JAX +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  BALSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | BAL +7.5 | 43.5 | IND 22 at BAL 19BAL +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 LAC @  MINSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 54 | LAC 28 at MIN 24MIN +1 closed · LAC covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | NYJ -2.5 | 35.5 | NE 15 at NYJ 10NYJ -2.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  GBSun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | GB -1.5 | 41.5 | NO 17 at GB 18GB -1.5 closed · GB covered |
 PIT @  LVSun, Sep 24 20:20 ET | LV +3 | 43.5 | PIT 23 at LV 18LV +3 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  CLESun, Sep 24 13:00 ET | CLE +3.5 | 38 | TEN 3 at CLE 27CLE +3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 LA @  CINMon, Sep 25 20:15 ET | CIN +3 | 45.5 | LA 16 at CIN 19CIN +3 closed · push |
 PHI @  TBMon, Sep 25 19:15 ET | TB -6 | 44 | PHI 25 at TB 11TB -6 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ WAS - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 84-55 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
DAL @ ARI - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 84-55 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
ATL @ DET - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 79-52 (60%)
NO @ GB - model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better QB 31-20 (61%)
PHI @ TB TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
IND @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
BUF @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
TEN @ CLE TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
LA @ CIN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
PIT @ LV TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
CAR @ SEA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
LAC @ MIN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
NYG @ SF TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.