Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 16.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-3, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 87-83, -5.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO @  LAThu, Dec 21 20:15 ET | LA +4 | 45.5 | NO 22 at LA 30LA +4 closed · LA covered |
 BUF @  LACSat, Dec 23 20:00 ET | LAC -13 | 44.5 | BUF 24 at LAC 22LAC -13 closed · LAC covered |
 CIN @  PITSat, Dec 23 16:30 ET | PIT -3 | 39.5 | CIN 11 at PIT 34PIT -3 closed · PIT covered |
 ARI @  CHISun, Dec 24 16:25 ET | CHI +4.5 | 42 | ARI 16 at CHI 27CHI +4.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  HOUSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | HOU -3 | 40 | CLE 36 at HOU 22HOU -3 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  MIASun, Dec 24 16:25 ET | MIA +1.5 | 48.5 | DAL 20 at MIA 22MIA +1.5 closed · MIA covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | MIN -2.5 | 47.5 | DET 30 at MIN 24MIN -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  CARSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | CAR -3.5 | 39.5 | GB 33 at CAR 30CAR -3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 IND @  ATLSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 44 | IND 10 at ATL 29ATL +3 closed · ATL covered |
 JAX @  TBSun, Dec 24 16:05 ET | TB -2 | 43 | JAX 12 at TB 30TB -2 closed · TB covered |
 NE @  DENSun, Dec 24 20:15 ET | DEN +7 | 37.5 | NE 26 at DEN 23DEN +7 closed · NE covered |
 SEA @  TENSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | TEN -3 | 42 | SEA 20 at TEN 17TEN -3 closed · push |
 WAS @  NYJSun, Dec 24 13:00 ET | NYJ +3 | 36.5 | WAS 28 at NYJ 30NYJ +3 closed · WAS covered |
 BAL @  SFMon, Dec 25 20:15 ET | SF +6.5 | 47.5 | BAL 33 at SF 19SF +6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 LV @  KCMon, Dec 25 13:00 ET | KC +11 | 40.5 | LV 20 at KC 14KC +11 closed · LV covered |
 NYG @  PHIMon, Dec 25 16:30 ET | PHI +14 | 41 | NYG 25 at PHI 33PHI +14 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ PIT - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 116-74 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 132-86 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ DEN - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 31-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, worse QB 20-13 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ HOU - model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 21-13 (62%)
DAL @ MIA - model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, high total (48+) 28-18 (61%)
DET @ MIN - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 79-52 (60%)
NYG @ PHI - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), division game, low total (41 or under) 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 39-22 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 39-22 (64%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
DAL @ MIA TOTAL- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
LV @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
NE @ DEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
CLE @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
WAS @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.