Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 5.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-10, -9.0u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 33-36, -5.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHI @  WASThu, Oct 5 20:15 ET | WAS +6 | 45.5 | CHI 40 at WAS 20WAS +6 closed · CHI covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | PIT -4.5 | 38.5 | BAL 10 at PIT 17PIT -4.5 closed · PIT covered |
 CAR @  DETSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | DET +9.5 | 43.5 | CAR 24 at DET 42DET +9.5 closed · DET covered |
 CIN @  ARISun, Oct 8 16:05 ET | ARI -3 | 45.5 | CIN 34 at ARI 20ARI -3 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  SFSun, Oct 8 20:20 ET | SF +3.5 | 45 | DAL 10 at SF 42SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
 HOU @  ATLSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 42 | HOU 19 at ATL 21ATL +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  BUFSun, Oct 8 09:30 ET | BUF +5.5 | 48.5 | JAX 25 at BUF 20BUF +5.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  MINSun, Oct 8 16:25 ET | MIN -3.5 | 52.5 | KC 27 at MIN 20MIN -3.5 closed · KC covered |
 NO @  NESun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | NE +2.5 | 38.5 | NO 34 at NE 0NE +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  MIASun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | MIA +12.5 | 47.5 | NYG 16 at MIA 31MIA +12.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NYJ @  DENSun, Oct 8 16:25 ET | DEN +2.5 | 42.5 | NYJ 31 at DEN 21DEN +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  LASun, Oct 8 16:05 ET | LA -3.5 | 50.5 | PHI 23 at LA 14LA -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Oct 8 13:00 ET | IND -2.5 | 43.5 | TEN 16 at IND 23IND -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 GB @  LVMon, Oct 9 20:15 ET | LV +1 | 45 | GB 13 at LV 17LV +1 closed · LV covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 61-36 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 26-16 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 19-12 (61%)
GB @ LV - model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better record, in a dome 20-12 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better record, in a dome 19-12 (61%)
KC @ MIN - model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, on turf 75-49 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 75-50 (60%)
NO @ NE - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 23-14 (62%)
PHI @ LAR - model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 69-46 (60%)
NO @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
BAL @ PIT TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
GB @ LV TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
NYJ @ DEN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
CIN @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
PHI @ LA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
JAX @ BUF TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.