Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 8.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-3, +8.6u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 52-47, +6.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  BUFThu, Oct 26 20:15 ET | BUF +10 | 43 | TB 18 at BUF 24BUF +10 closed · TB covered |
 ATL @  TENSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | TEN -2.5 | 35 | ATL 23 at TEN 28TEN -2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 BAL @  ARISun, Oct 29 16:25 ET | ARI -9.5 | 44.5 | BAL 31 at ARI 24ARI -9.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CHI @  LACSun, Oct 29 20:20 ET | LAC +9.5 | 46 | CHI 13 at LAC 30LAC +9.5 closed · LAC covered |
 CIN @  SFSun, Oct 29 16:25 ET | SF +4 | 44 | CIN 31 at SF 17SF +4 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  SEASun, Oct 29 16:05 ET | SEA +4 | 39.5 | CLE 20 at SEA 24SEA +4 closed · push |
 HOU @  CARSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 43 | HOU 13 at CAR 15CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 JAX @  PITSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | PIT -2.5 | 41 | JAX 20 at PIT 10PIT -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Oct 29 16:25 ET | DEN -7 | 45.5 | KC 9 at DEN 24DEN -7 closed · DEN covered |
 LA @  DALSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | DAL +6.5 | 44.5 | LA 20 at DAL 43DAL +6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | GB -1 | 41.5 | MIN 24 at GB 10GB -1 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | MIA +7.5 | 46.5 | NE 17 at MIA 31MIA +7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  INDSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | IND -2 | 43.5 | NO 38 at IND 27IND -2 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  NYGSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 35 | NYJ 13 at NYG 10NYG -3 closed · push |
 PHI @  WASSun, Oct 29 13:00 ET | WAS -7 | 42.5 | PHI 38 at WAS 31WAS -7 closed · push |
 LV @  DETMon, Oct 30 20:15 ET | DET +7 | 46 | LV 14 at DET 26DET +7 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ ARI - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, in a dome 29-12 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, in a dome 45-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 59-33 (64%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
LAR @ DAL - model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 25-11 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 31-16 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 36-20 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LV @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 47-28 (63%)
NE @ MIA - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 21-11 (66%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 13-7 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 20-11 (64%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
MIN @ GB - model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 20-8 (71%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 26-11 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 41-21 (66%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
NE @ MIA TOTAL- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
KC @ DEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
ATL @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
LA @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 56-44 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 93-76 (55%)
CLE @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
CIN @ SF TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.