Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 17.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, +2.5u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 94-88, -3.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  CLEThu, Dec 28 20:15 ET | CLE +6.5 | 33.5 | NYJ 20 at CLE 37CLE +6.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  DALSat, Dec 30 20:15 ET | DAL +5.5 | 53 | DET 19 at DAL 20DAL +5.5 closed · DET covered |
 ARI @  PHISun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | PHI +12 | 48 | ARI 35 at PHI 31PHI +12 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  CHISun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 39 | ATL 17 at CHI 37CHI +3 closed · CHI covered |
 CAR @  JAXSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | JAX +3.5 | 38 | CAR 0 at JAX 26JAX +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 CIN @  KCSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | KC +7.5 | 46 | CIN 17 at KC 25KC +7.5 closed · KC covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Dec 31 20:20 ET | MIN +1 | 42.5 | GB 33 at MIN 10MIN +1 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Dec 31 16:25 ET | DEN +3.5 | 39.5 | LAC 9 at DEN 16DEN +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LA @  NYGSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | NYG -6 | 43.5 | LA 26 at NYG 25NYG -6 closed · NYG covered |
 LV @  INDSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | IND +3.5 | 42.5 | LV 20 at IND 23IND +3.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  BALSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 47 | MIA 19 at BAL 56BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | BUF +15 | 40 | NE 21 at BUF 27BUF +15 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | TB +2.5 | 42.5 | NO 23 at TB 13TB +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 PIT @  SEASun, Dec 31 16:05 ET | SEA +4.5 | 40.5 | PIT 30 at SEA 23SEA +4.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  WASSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | WAS -14 | 49 | SF 27 at WAS 10WAS -14 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Dec 31 13:00 ET | HOU +5 | 44 | TEN 3 at HOU 26HOU +5 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NYJ @ CLE - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better record, worse QB 112-73 (60%)
DET @ DAL - model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 75-50 (60%)
LV @ IND - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 18-10 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 29-17 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
MIA @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 18-12 (60%)
SF @ WAS - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-14 (61%)
NO @ TB - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 31-17 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 27-15 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, bad QB 14-8 (64%)
NYJ @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
PIT @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
NE @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
LA @ NYG TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 93-76 (55%)
SF @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 59-28 (68%)
- under when high total (48+), road team off Monday night 29-21 (58%)
ARI @ PHI TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 56-35 (62%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.