Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 2.
16 games and 19 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 15-4, +10.5u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 21-10, +9.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  PHIThu, Sep 14 20:15 ET | PHI +6 | 49 | MIN 28 at PHI 34PHI +6 closed · push |
 BAL @  CINSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 45.5 | BAL 27 at CIN 24CIN +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CHI @  TBSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | TB +2.5 | 41 | CHI 17 at TB 27TB +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 GB @  ATLSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 40.5 | GB 24 at ATL 25ATL +3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 40 | IND 31 at HOU 20HOU -1 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  JAXSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 50.5 | KC 17 at JAX 9JAX -3.5 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  TENSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | TEN -2.5 | 45.5 | LAC 24 at TEN 27TEN -2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 LV @  BUFSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | BUF +7.5 | 47 | LV 10 at BUF 38BUF +7.5 closed · BUF covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Sep 17 20:20 ET | NE -2 | 46.5 | MIA 24 at NE 17NE -2 closed · MIA covered |
 NYG @  ARISun, Sep 17 16:05 ET | ARI -5 | 40 | NYG 31 at ARI 28ARI -5 closed · ARI covered |
 NYJ @  DALSun, Sep 17 16:25 ET | DAL +8.5 | 38.5 | NYJ 10 at DAL 30DAL +8.5 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  DETSun, Sep 17 13:00 ET | DET +4.5 | 47.5 | SEA 37 at DET 31DET +4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  LASun, Sep 17 16:05 ET | LA -7.5 | 45 | SF 30 at LA 23LA -7.5 closed · LA covered |
 WAS @  DENSun, Sep 17 16:25 ET | DEN +4 | 38.5 | WAS 35 at DEN 33DEN +4 closed · WAS covered |
 CLE @  PITMon, Sep 18 20:15 ET | PIT -2.5 | 39 | CLE 22 at PIT 26PIT -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 NO @  CARMon, Sep 18 19:15 ET | CAR -3 | 39.5 | NO 20 at CAR 17CAR -3 closed · push |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CIN WIN BAL +3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, division game 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, division game 37-24 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 36-24 (60%)
CHI @ TB WIN CHI +2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, bad QB 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ DEN WIN DEN -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
LV @ BUF LOSS LV +7.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 77-51 (60%)
NYG @ ARI WIN NYG -5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 26-16 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
NYJ @ DAL LOSS NYJ +8.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, won last week 18-9 (67%)
BAL @ CIN TOTALLOSS Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
KC @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
NYG @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
CLE @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
NO @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
NYJ @ DAL TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
WAS @ DEN TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
GB @ ATL TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
IND @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
CHI @ TB TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 222-178 (56%)
LV @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
SEA @ DET TOTALWIN Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
LAC @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.