Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 6.
15 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-5, -2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 35-41, -8.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  KCThu, Oct 12 20:15 ET | KC +10.5 | 47.5 | DEN 8 at KC 19KC +10.5 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Oct 15 16:25 ET | LA +7 | 48 | ARI 9 at LA 26LA +7 closed · LA covered |
 BAL @  TENSun, Oct 15 09:30 ET | TEN -5.5 | 42.5 | BAL 24 at TEN 16TEN -5.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  MIASun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | MIA +14 | 47.5 | CAR 21 at MIA 42MIA +14 closed · MIA covered |
 DET @  TBSun, Oct 15 16:25 ET | TB -3 | 43.5 | DET 20 at TB 6TB -3 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | JAX +4 | 44 | IND 20 at JAX 37JAX +4 closed · JAX covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 44.5 | MIN 19 at CHI 13CHI -3 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  LVSun, Oct 15 16:05 ET | LV +3 | 41.5 | NE 17 at LV 21LV +3 closed · LV covered |
 NO @  HOUSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | HOU -2 | 42.5 | NO 13 at HOU 20HOU -2 closed · HOU covered |
 NYG @  BUFSun, Oct 15 20:20 ET | BUF +15.5 | 43.5 | NYG 9 at BUF 14BUF +15.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  NYJSun, Oct 15 16:25 ET | NYJ -6.5 | 43 | PHI 14 at NYJ 20NYJ -6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  CINSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 45.5 | SEA 13 at CIN 17CIN +3 closed · CIN covered |
 SF @  CLESun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | CLE -9.5 | 36 | SF 17 at CLE 19CLE -9.5 closed · CLE covered |
 WAS @  ATLSun, Oct 15 13:00 ET | ATL +1.5 | 42 | WAS 24 at ATL 16ATL +1.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DAL @  LACMon, Oct 16 20:15 ET | LAC -1.5 | 49.5 | DAL 20 at LAC 17LAC -1.5 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ CHI - model likes them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse QB 23-13 (64%)
DET @ TB - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
NE @ LV - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 19-6 (76%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 31-11 (74%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 17-7 (71%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
NO @ HOU - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 41-21 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 59-33 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, in a dome, on turf 41-23 (64%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
WAS @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 19-6 (76%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 31-11 (74%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 17-7 (71%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
NE @ LV TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 43-28 (61%)
- over when in a dome, home team off Monday night 56-44 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
BAL @ TEN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 195-157 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.