Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 10.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-5, -5.9u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 59-57, -1.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  CHIThu, Nov 9 20:15 ET | CHI +3 | 38 | CAR 13 at CHI 16CHI +3 closed · push |
 ATL @  ARISun, Nov 12 16:05 ET | ARI -2 | 43.5 | ATL 23 at ARI 25ARI -2 closed · ARI covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | BAL +6 | 38.5 | CLE 33 at BAL 31BAL +6 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  LACSun, Nov 12 16:05 ET | LAC -2.5 | 48.5 | DET 41 at LAC 38LAC -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  PITSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 38.5 | GB 19 at PIT 23PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 HOU @  CINSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | CIN +5.5 | 46 | HOU 30 at CIN 27CIN +5.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  NESun, Nov 12 09:30 ET | NE -1 | 42 | IND 10 at NE 6NE -1 closed · IND covered |
 NO @  MINSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | MIN -3 | 41 | NO 19 at MIN 27MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Nov 12 16:25 ET | DAL +17.5 | 38.5 | NYG 17 at DAL 49DAL +17.5 closed · DAL covered |
 NYJ @  LVSun, Nov 12 20:20 ET | LV -1 | 35.5 | NYJ 12 at LV 16LV -1 closed · LV covered |
 SF @  JAXSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 44.5 | SF 34 at JAX 3JAX -3 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  TBSun, Nov 12 13:00 ET | TB +2.5 | 39.5 | TEN 6 at TB 20TB +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  SEASun, Nov 12 16:25 ET | SEA +6 | 44 | WAS 26 at SEA 29SEA +6 closed · WAS covered |
 DEN @  BUFMon, Nov 13 20:15 ET | BUF +7.5 | 47.5 | DEN 24 at BUF 22BUF +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 31-11 (74%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 20-9 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 26-13 (67%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
DEN @ BUF - model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 21-11 (66%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 26-14 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 56-34 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CLE @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 23-11 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 16-9 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ LAC - model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, worse QB 22-13 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 90-57 (61%)
GB @ PIT - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better QB 35-23 (60%)
NO @ MIN - model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 21-13 (62%)
NYJ @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
NYG @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
NO @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.