Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 7.
13 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-3, +6.7u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 44-44, -1.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX @  NOThu, Oct 19 20:15 ET | NO +2.5 | 41 | JAX 31 at NO 24NO +2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Oct 22 16:05 ET | SEA +9.5 | 43.5 | ARI 10 at SEA 20SEA +9.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | TB +3 | 37.5 | ATL 16 at TB 13TB +3 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | NE -7.5 | 41 | BUF 25 at NE 29NE -7.5 closed · NE covered |
 CLE @  INDSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | IND -3.5 | 40 | CLE 39 at IND 38IND -3.5 closed · IND covered |
 DET @  BALSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 43.5 | DET 6 at BAL 38BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 GB @  DENSun, Oct 22 16:25 ET | DEN +1.5 | 44 | GB 17 at DEN 19DEN +1.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LAC @  KCSun, Oct 22 16:25 ET | KC +5.5 | 48.5 | LAC 17 at KC 31KC +5.5 closed · KC covered |
 LV @  CHISun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | CHI -2.5 | 38.5 | LV 12 at CHI 30CHI -2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 MIA @  PHISun, Oct 22 20:20 ET | PHI +3 | 52 | MIA 17 at PHI 31PHI +3 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  LASun, Oct 22 16:05 ET | LA +3.5 | 44 | PIT 24 at LA 17LA +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Oct 22 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 37 | WAS 7 at NYG 14NYG -3 closed · NYG covered |
 SF @  MINMon, Oct 23 20:15 ET | MIN -7 | 44.5 | SF 17 at MIN 22MIN -7 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ SEA - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), better coach, division game 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, better coach 21-14 (60%)
CLE @ IND - model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, low total (41 or under) 24-16 (60%)
LV @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 116-74 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 132-86 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIA @ PHI - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, elite QB 42-26 (62%)
JAC @ NO - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 39-26 (60%)
MIA @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
DET @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 95-62 (60%)
- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
JAX @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
CLE @ IND TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
WAS @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
LAC @ KC TOTAL- under when high total (48+), road team off Monday night 29-21 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.