Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 18.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-3, +3.6u flat at -110. Season through week 18: 102-91, +0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  INDSat, Jan 6 20:15 ET | IND -1.5 | 47.5 | HOU 23 at IND 19IND -1.5 closed · HOU covered |
 PIT @  BALSat, Jan 6 16:30 ET | BAL -3 | 34 | PIT 17 at BAL 10BAL -3 closed · PIT covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 41.5 | ATL 17 at NO 48NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Jan 7 20:20 ET | MIA -2.5 | 47.5 | BUF 21 at MIA 14MIA -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | GB +2.5 | 45.5 | CHI 9 at GB 17GB +2.5 closed · GB covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | CIN +7.5 | 37 | CLE 14 at CIN 31CIN +7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | WAS -13 | 47.5 | DAL 38 at WAS 10WAS -13 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | LV +3.5 | 37.5 | DEN 14 at LV 27LV +3.5 closed · LV covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 41.5 | JAX 20 at TEN 28TEN -3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 KC @  LACSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | LAC +3.5 | 35 | KC 13 at LAC 12LAC +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  SFSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | SF +5.5 | 40 | LA 21 at SF 20SF +5.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | DET +3.5 | 47.5 | MIN 20 at DET 30DET +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | NE +2.5 | 28.5 | NYJ 17 at NE 3NE +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | NYG -4.5 | 43 | PHI 10 at NYG 27NYG -4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Jan 7 16:25 ET | ARI -2.5 | 48 | SEA 21 at ARI 20ARI -2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Jan 7 13:00 ET | CAR -5 | 36.5 | TB 9 at CAR 0CAR -5 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
JAC @ TEN - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 105-69 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 117-78 (60%)
DEN @ LV - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 53-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 67-40 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
PIT @ BAL - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 116-74 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 132-86 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ CAR - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, worse QB 15-9 (62%)
TB @ CAR TOTAL- under when windy 244-191 (56%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 98-78 (56%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 95-62 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BUF @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 124-85 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 153-117 (57%)
KC @ LAC TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
DEN @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 107-69 (61%)
CLE @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.