Weekly Lines · 2023
Week 11.
14 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2023. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-3, +1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 63-60, +0.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  BALThu, Nov 16 20:15 ET | BAL +4 | 46.5 | CIN 20 at BAL 34BAL +4 closed · BAL covered |
 ARI @  HOUSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | HOU +5.5 | 48 | ARI 16 at HOU 21HOU +5.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | DET +8 | 48 | CHI 26 at DET 31DET +8 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  CARSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | CAR -11 | 43 | DAL 33 at CAR 10CAR -11 closed · DAL covered |
 LAC @  GBSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | GB -3 | 44 | LAC 20 at GB 23GB -3 closed · GB covered |
 LV @  MIASun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | MIA +14 | 44.5 | LV 13 at MIA 20MIA +14 closed · LV covered |
 MIN @  DENSun, Nov 19 20:20 ET | DEN +2.5 | 43.5 | MIN 20 at DEN 21DEN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | WAS +7.5 | 39 | NYG 31 at WAS 19WAS +7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Nov 19 16:25 ET | BUF +8 | 39.5 | NYJ 6 at BUF 32BUF +8 closed · BUF covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 34 | PIT 10 at CLE 13CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Nov 19 16:25 ET | LA +2.5 | 45 | SEA 16 at LA 17LA +2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  SFSun, Nov 19 16:05 ET | SF +13.5 | 41.5 | TB 14 at SF 27SF +13.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Nov 19 13:00 ET | JAX +6.5 | 40 | TEN 14 at JAX 34JAX +6.5 closed · JAX covered |
 PHI @  KCMon, Nov 20 20:15 ET | KC +2.5 | 46 | PHI 21 at KC 17KC +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DAL @ CAR - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-14 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 69-45 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 84-55 (60%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ JAC - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 97-60 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 151-96 (61%)
LV @ MIA - model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, won last week 18-9 (67%)
PIT @ CLE - model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 80-53 (60%)
PHI @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
TB @ SF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 229-181 (56%)
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 214-167 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 93-76 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.