Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 1.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-6, -6.8u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 2-6, -6.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  KCThu, Sep 5 20:20 ET | KC +3 | 46 | BAL 20 at KC 27KC +3 closed · KC covered |
 GB @  PHIFri, Sep 6 20:15 ET | PHI +2 | 49.5 | GB 29 at PHI 34PHI +2 closed · PHI covered |
 ARI @  BUFSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 46 | ARI 28 at BUF 34BUF +6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 41.5 | CAR 10 at NO 47NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 DAL @  CLESun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | CLE +2.5 | 42 | DAL 33 at CLE 17CLE +2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  SEASun, Sep 8 16:05 ET | SEA +6.5 | 42 | DEN 20 at SEA 26SEA +6.5 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 49 | HOU 29 at IND 27IND -3 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  MIASun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 49.5 | JAX 17 at MIA 20MIA +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  DETSun, Sep 8 20:20 ET | DET +5 | 54 | LA 20 at DET 26DET +5 closed · DET covered |
 LV @  LACSun, Sep 8 16:05 ET | LAC +3 | 41 | LV 10 at LAC 22LAC +3 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  NYGSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | NYG -1 | 42.5 | MIN 28 at NYG 6NYG -1 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  CINSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CIN +8 | 40.5 | NE 16 at CIN 10CIN +8 closed · NE covered |
 PIT @  ATLSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | ATL +4 | 43 | PIT 18 at ATL 10ATL +4 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  CHISun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CHI +4 | 43 | TEN 17 at CHI 24CHI +4 closed · CHI covered |
 WAS @  TBSun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | TB +4 | 42 | WAS 20 at TB 37TB +4 closed · TB covered |
 NYJ @  SFMon, Sep 9 20:15 ET | SF +3.5 | 43 | NYJ 19 at SF 32SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ IND - model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game, in a dome 52-32 (62%)
LV @ LAC - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 85-55 (61%)
GB @ PHI - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 19-8 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 16-8 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 22-12 (65%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
ARI @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 98-64 (60%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
LV @ LAC TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
NE @ CIN TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
GB @ PHI TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 59-35 (63%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.