Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 16.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-7, -4.8u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 63-63, -4.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  LACThu, Dec 19 20:15 ET | LAC +3 | 41.5 | DEN 27 at LAC 34LAC +3 closed · LAC covered |
 HOU @  KCSat, Dec 21 13:00 ET | KC +3.5 | 42.5 | HOU 19 at KC 27KC +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 PIT @  BALSat, Dec 21 16:30 ET | BAL +7 | 44.5 | PIT 17 at BAL 34BAL +7 closed · BAL covered |
 ARI @  CARSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | CAR -5.5 | 47 | ARI 30 at CAR 36CAR -5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | CIN +10 | 46.5 | CLE 6 at CIN 24CIN +10 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | CHI -7 | 47.5 | DET 34 at CHI 17CHI -7 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  LVSun, Dec 22 16:25 ET | LV +2.5 | 41.5 | JAX 14 at LV 19LV +2.5 closed · LV covered |
 LA @  NYJSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 47 | LA 19 at NYJ 9NYJ -3 closed · LA covered |
 MIN @  SEASun, Dec 22 16:05 ET | SEA -2.5 | 43 | MIN 27 at SEA 24SEA -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Dec 22 16:25 ET | BUF +14 | 48 | NE 21 at BUF 24BUF +14 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  ATLSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | ATL +9.5 | 42.5 | NYG 7 at ATL 34ATL +9.5 closed · ATL covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | WAS -4 | 47 | PHI 33 at WAS 36WAS -4 closed · WAS covered |
 SF @  MIASun, Dec 22 16:25 ET | MIA -2 | 44 | SF 17 at MIA 29MIA -2 closed · MIA covered |
 TB @  DALSun, Dec 22 20:20 ET | DAL -4.5 | 47.5 | TB 24 at DAL 26DAL -4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Dec 22 13:00 ET | IND +4 | 42.5 | TEN 30 at IND 38IND +4 closed · IND covered |
 NO @  GBMon, Dec 23 20:15 ET | GB +14 | 44 | NO 0 at GB 34GB +14 closed · GB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PIT @ BAL - model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 28-18 (61%)
CLE @ CIN - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 74-48 (61%)
DEN @ LAC - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 39-20 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 43-24 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 51-30 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SF @ MIA - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 15-9 (62%)
MIN @ SEA - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 28-12 (70%)
MIN @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
NYG @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
JAX @ LV TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.