Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 11.
14 games and 5 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-3, +2.7u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 45-43, -3.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  PHIThu, Nov 14 20:15 ET | PHI +4.5 | 49.5 | WAS 18 at PHI 26PHI +4.5 closed · PHI covered |
 ATL @  DENSun, Nov 17 16:05 ET | DEN +2 | 44.5 | ATL 6 at DEN 38DEN +2 closed · DEN covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | PIT -3 | 48 | BAL 16 at PIT 18PIT -3 closed · PIT covered |
 CIN @  LACSun, Nov 17 20:20 ET | LAC +1 | 48 | CIN 27 at LAC 34LAC +1 closed · LAC covered |
 CLE @  NOSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | NO -1 | 44 | CLE 14 at NO 35NO -1 closed · NO covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | CHI -6 | 41 | GB 20 at CHI 19CHI -6 closed · CHI covered |
 IND @  NYJSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | NYJ +4 | 43 | IND 28 at NYJ 27NYJ +4 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  DETSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | DET +14 | 47.5 | JAX 6 at DET 52DET +14 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  BUFSun, Nov 17 16:25 ET | BUF +2.5 | 46.5 | KC 21 at BUF 30BUF +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 LA @  NESun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | NE -4 | 42.5 | LA 28 at NE 22NE -4 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  MIASun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | MIA +8 | 43.5 | LV 19 at MIA 34MIA +8 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  TENSun, Nov 17 13:00 ET | TEN -6 | 40 | MIN 23 at TEN 13TEN -6 closed · MIN covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Nov 17 16:05 ET | SF +6 | 49 | SEA 20 at SF 17SF +6 closed · SEA covered |
 HOU @  DALMon, Nov 18 20:15 ET | DAL -7.5 | 41.5 | HOU 34 at DAL 10DAL -7.5 closed · HOU covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 20-7 (74%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-13 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 18-8 (69%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
JAC @ DET - model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 22-8 (73%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, bad QB 26-10 (72%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, bad QB 28-18 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LV @ MIA - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, won last week 77-50 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 90-59 (60%)
LAR @ NE - model likes them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 17-11 (61%)
SEA @ SF - model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 55-35 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 67-43 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 62-40 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.