Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 3.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-9, -8.1u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 12-18, -9.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NE @  NYJThu, Sep 19 20:15 ET | NYJ +6.5 | 39 | NE 3 at NYJ 24NYJ +6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 BAL @  DALSun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | DAL -1.5 | 47.5 | BAL 28 at DAL 25DAL -1.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CAR @  LVSun, Sep 22 16:05 ET | LV +5.5 | 40 | CAR 36 at LV 22LV +5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  INDSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | IND +1.5 | 43 | CHI 16 at IND 21IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 DEN @  TBSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | TB +6 | 40.5 | DEN 26 at TB 7TB +6 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | ARI -3 | 51.5 | DET 20 at ARI 13ARI -3 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  TENSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 37 | GB 30 at TEN 14TEN +3 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  MINSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | MIN -2 | 46 | HOU 7 at MIN 34MIN -2 closed · MIN covered |
 KC @  ATLSun, Sep 22 20:20 ET | ATL -3 | 46 | KC 22 at ATL 17ATL -3 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  PITSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | PIT +3 | 36 | LAC 10 at PIT 20PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
 MIA @  SEASun, Sep 22 16:05 ET | SEA +4 | 41.5 | MIA 3 at SEA 24SEA +4 closed · SEA covered |
 NYG @  CLESun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | CLE +6.5 | 38 | NYG 21 at CLE 15CLE +6.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  NOSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | NO +2.5 | 49 | PHI 15 at NO 12NO +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  LASun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | LA -6 | 44.5 | SF 24 at LA 27LA -6 closed · LA covered |
 JAX @  BUFMon, Sep 23 19:30 ET | BUF +4 | 46.5 | JAX 10 at BUF 47BUF +4 closed · BUF covered |
 WAS @  CINMon, Sep 23 20:15 ET | CIN +7.5 | 46 | WAS 38 at CIN 33CIN +7.5 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ LV - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-13 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 29-15 (66%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
BAL @ DAL - model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 45-27 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 46-29 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better record, in a dome 22-14 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ LAR - model fades them by 3.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 26-14 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 64-38 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 57-34 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
WAS @ CIN - model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 62-39 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 72-47 (60%)
WAS @ CIN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
JAX @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
CAR @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
KC @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
NYG @ CLE TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
LAC @ PIT TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
DEN @ TB TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.