Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 15.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, +1.6u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 61-56, +0.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LA @  SFThu, Dec 12 20:15 ET | SF +3 | 48.5 | LA 12 at SF 6SF +3 closed · LA covered |
 BAL @  NYGSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | NYG -16.5 | 43.5 | BAL 35 at NYG 14NYG -16.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  DETSun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | DET +2.5 | 55.5 | BUF 48 at DET 42DET +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  TENSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | TEN -6 | 46.5 | CIN 37 at TEN 27TEN -6 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  CARSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 42 | DAL 30 at CAR 14CAR +2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  SEASun, Dec 15 20:20 ET | SEA -3 | 48 | GB 30 at SEA 13SEA -3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  DENSun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | DEN +4.5 | 43.5 | IND 13 at DEN 31DEN +4.5 closed · DEN covered |
 KC @  CLESun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | CLE -4.5 | 41.5 | KC 21 at CLE 7CLE -4.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  HOUSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | HOU +2.5 | 46.5 | MIA 12 at HOU 20HOU +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 NE @  ARISun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | ARI +6 | 46.5 | NE 17 at ARI 30ARI +6 closed · ARI covered |
 NYJ @  JAXSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 41.5 | NYJ 32 at JAX 25JAX -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  PHISun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | PHI +5.5 | 43 | PIT 13 at PHI 27PHI +5.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TB @  LACSun, Dec 15 16:25 ET | LAC +3 | 46 | TB 40 at LAC 17LAC +3 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  NOSun, Dec 15 13:00 ET | NO -7.5 | 44.5 | WAS 20 at NO 19NO -7.5 closed · NO covered |
 ATL @  LVMon, Dec 16 20:30 ET | LV -6.5 | 44.5 | ATL 15 at LV 9LV -6.5 closed · LV covered |
 CHI @  MINMon, Dec 16 20:00 ET | MIN +7 | 43.5 | CHI 12 at MIN 30MIN +7 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ MIN - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 31-9 (78%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 34-13 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, in a dome 22-11 (67%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
CIN @ TEN - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 90-59 (60%)
MIA @ HOU - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, worse record 63-40 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 45-29 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LAR @ SF - model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, elite QB 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 28-18 (61%)
KC @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 98-64 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CIN @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
LA @ SF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
IND @ DEN TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.