Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 18.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 18: 71-71, -6.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  PITSat, Jan 4 20:00 ET | PIT -2.5 | 48.5 | CIN 19 at PIT 17PIT -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 CLE @  BALSat, Jan 4 16:30 ET | BAL +19.5 | 42.5 | CLE 10 at BAL 35BAL +19.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | NE -3 | 36.5 | BUF 16 at NE 23NE -3 closed · NE covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | ATL +7.5 | 48.5 | CAR 44 at ATL 38ATL +7.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | GB +10 | 41.5 | CHI 24 at GB 22GB +10 closed · CHI covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 36.5 | HOU 23 at TEN 14TEN +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | IND +3.5 | 45.5 | JAX 23 at IND 26IND +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Jan 5 16:25 ET | DEN +10.5 | 40.5 | KC 0 at DEN 38DEN +10.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LAC @  LVSun, Jan 5 16:25 ET | LV -7 | 42.5 | LAC 34 at LV 20LV -7 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Jan 5 16:25 ET | NYJ +1.5 | 39.5 | MIA 20 at NYJ 32NYJ +1.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Jan 5 20:20 ET | DET +3 | 56.5 | MIN 9 at DET 31DET +3 closed · DET covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | TB +14.5 | 44.5 | NO 19 at TB 27TB +14.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | PHI +3 | 36.5 | NYG 13 at PHI 20PHI +3 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Jan 5 16:25 ET | LA -7.5 | 38.5 | SEA 30 at LA 25LA -7.5 closed · LA covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Jan 5 16:25 ET | ARI +4.5 | 42.5 | SF 24 at ARI 47ARI +4.5 closed · ARI covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Jan 5 13:00 ET | DAL -7 | 43.5 | WAS 23 at DAL 19DAL -7 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ DET - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 67-43 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 69-45 (60%)
CHI @ GB - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 24-11 (69%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 15-7 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 25-12 (68%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
NO @ TB - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 74-48 (61%)
HOU @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 102-78 (57%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
CLE @ BAL TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
SEA @ LA TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
MIN @ DET TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 59-35 (63%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.