Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 14.
13 games and 5 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-1, +2.9u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 57-52, -1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  DETThu, Dec 5 20:15 ET | DET +3 | 53 | GB 31 at DET 34DET +3 closed · push |
 ATL @  MINSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | MIN +6 | 46.5 | ATL 21 at MIN 42MIN +6 closed · MIN covered |
 BUF @  LASun, Dec 8 16:25 ET | LA -3.5 | 49.5 | BUF 42 at LA 44LA -3.5 closed · LA covered |
 CAR @  PHISun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | PHI +14 | 44.5 | CAR 16 at PHI 22PHI +14 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  SFSun, Dec 8 16:25 ET | SF +3 | 43.5 | CHI 13 at SF 38SF +3 closed · SF covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | PIT +6 | 43 | CLE 14 at PIT 27PIT +6 closed · PIT covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 40 | JAX 10 at TEN 6TEN +3 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  KCSun, Dec 8 20:20 ET | KC +5 | 43.5 | LAC 17 at KC 19KC +5 closed · LAC covered |
 LV @  TBSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | TB +7 | 47 | LV 13 at TB 28TB +7 closed · TB covered |
 NO @  NYGSun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | NYG -5.5 | 41 | NO 14 at NYG 11NYG -5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Dec 8 13:00 ET | MIA +6.5 | 45 | NYJ 26 at MIA 32MIA +6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Dec 8 16:05 ET | ARI +3 | 45.5 | SEA 30 at ARI 18ARI +3 closed · SEA covered |
 CIN @  DALMon, Dec 9 20:15 ET | DAL -5 | 51 | CIN 27 at DAL 20DAL -5 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ TB - model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse QB, better coach 22-14 (61%)
NYJ @ MIA - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 66-40 (62%)
CHI @ SF - model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 55-35 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 67-43 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 62-40 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ PHI TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
NO @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.