Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 8.
16 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-6, -3.9u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 36-35, -7.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  LAThu, Oct 24 20:15 ET | LA -3 | 47.5 | MIN 20 at LA 30LA -3 closed · LA covered |
 ARI @  MIASun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | MIA +4 | 46.5 | ARI 28 at MIA 27MIA +4 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | TB -1.5 | 47 | ATL 31 at TB 26TB -1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | CLE -7.5 | 44.5 | BAL 24 at CLE 29CLE -7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 BUF @  SEASun, Oct 27 16:05 ET | SEA -3 | 45.5 | BUF 31 at SEA 10SEA -3 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  DENSun, Oct 27 16:25 ET | DEN +13 | 40.5 | CAR 14 at DEN 28DEN +13 closed · DEN covered |
 CHI @  WASSun, Oct 27 16:25 ET | WAS +1.5 | 46.5 | CHI 15 at WAS 18WAS +1.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DAL @  SFSun, Oct 27 20:20 ET | SF +5.5 | 48 | DAL 24 at SF 30SF +5.5 closed · SF covered |
 GB @  JAXSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 49 | GB 30 at JAX 27JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | HOU +5 | 45 | IND 20 at HOU 23HOU +5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  LVSun, Oct 27 16:25 ET | LV -9 | 42 | KC 27 at LV 20LV -9 closed · LV covered |
 NO @  LACSun, Oct 27 16:05 ET | LAC +7 | 41.5 | NO 8 at LAC 26LAC +7 closed · LAC covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | NE -7 | 41 | NYJ 22 at NE 25NE -7 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  CINSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 47.5 | PHI 37 at CIN 17CIN +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TEN @  DETSun, Oct 27 13:00 ET | DET +12.5 | 45 | TEN 14 at DET 52DET +12.5 closed · DET covered |
 NYG @  PITMon, Oct 28 20:15 ET | PIT +6 | 37.5 | NYG 18 at PIT 26PIT +6 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ TB LOSS ATL -1.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 31-18 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, division game 17-10 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BAL @ CLE LOSS BAL -7.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-8 (73%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 28-12 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, better QB 30-18 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BUF @ SEA LOSS BUF -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 90-58 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 112-74 (60%)
CAR @ DEN LOSS CAR +13 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 36-19 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 32-18 (64%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 23-15 (60%)
CHI @ WAS WIN CHI +1.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 21-13 (62%)
DAL @ SF WIN DAL +5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
TEN @ DET LOSS DET -12.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 66-39 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, in a dome 70-45 (61%)
NYG @ PIT WIN NYG +6 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, bad QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 24-14 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BUF @ SEA TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
NYJ @ NE TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
NO @ LAC TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.