Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 6.
14 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-2, +1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 27-26, -4.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  SEAThu, Oct 10 20:15 ET | SEA -3.5 | 49 | SF 36 at SEA 24SEA -3.5 closed · SF covered |
 ARI @  GBSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | GB +5.5 | 47 | ARI 13 at GB 34GB +5.5 closed · GB covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Oct 13 16:25 ET | CAR -6 | 45.5 | ATL 38 at CAR 20CAR -6 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  NYGSun, Oct 13 20:20 ET | NYG -4.5 | 46 | CIN 17 at NYG 7NYG -4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PHISun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | PHI +8 | 42 | CLE 16 at PHI 20PHI +8 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  DALSun, Oct 13 16:25 ET | DAL -3.5 | 52.5 | DET 47 at DAL 9DAL -3.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  NESun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | NE -6.5 | 38.5 | HOU 41 at NE 21NE -6.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | TEN +2.5 | 42 | IND 20 at TEN 17TEN +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  CHISun, Oct 13 09:30 ET | CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | JAX 16 at CHI 35CHI -1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Oct 13 16:05 ET | DEN -3 | 37 | LAC 23 at DEN 16DEN -3 closed · LAC covered |
 PIT @  LVSun, Oct 13 16:05 ET | LV -3.5 | 36.5 | PIT 32 at LV 13LV -3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | NO -3.5 | 42.5 | TB 51 at NO 27NO -3.5 closed · TB covered |
 WAS @  BALSun, Oct 13 13:00 ET | BAL +6.5 | 51.5 | WAS 23 at BAL 30BAL +6.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  NYJMon, Oct 14 20:15 ET | NYJ -1 | 42 | BUF 23 at NYJ 20NYJ -1 closed · BUF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAC @ DEN - model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 21-12 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 31-18 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, division game 27-16 (63%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ PHI - model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, elite QB 14-9 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week 43-28 (61%)
TB @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 18-8 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 26-13 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 32-18 (64%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
PIT @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
HOU @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
TB @ NO TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
LAC @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.