Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 12.
13 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 48-46, -3.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  CLEThu, Nov 21 20:15 ET | CLE -3.5 | 36.5 | PIT 19 at CLE 24CLE -3.5 closed · CLE covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Nov 24 16:25 ET | SEA -1 | 46.5 | ARI 6 at SEA 16SEA -1 closed · SEA covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | WAS +10.5 | 45 | DAL 34 at WAS 26WAS +10.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Nov 24 16:05 ET | LV -6.5 | 41.5 | DEN 29 at LV 19LV -6.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  INDSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | IND -7 | 50.5 | DET 24 at IND 6IND -7 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  CARSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CAR -11 | 43 | KC 30 at CAR 27CAR -11 closed · CAR covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 39.5 | MIN 30 at CHI 27CHI -3 closed · push |
 NE @  MIASun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | MIA +7.5 | 46 | NE 15 at MIA 34MIA +7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  LASun, Nov 24 20:20 ET | LA -3 | 49 | PHI 37 at LA 20LA -3 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  GBSun, Nov 24 16:25 ET | GB +6.5 | 44.5 | SF 10 at GB 38GB +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 TB @  NYGSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | NYG -6.5 | 40.5 | TB 30 at NYG 7NYG -6.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | HOU +8 | 40.5 | TEN 32 at HOU 27HOU +8 closed · TEN covered |
 BAL @  LACMon, Nov 25 20:15 ET | LAC -3 | 51 | BAL 30 at LAC 23LAC -3 closed · BAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PIT @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, worse QB 46-28 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 73-46 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, division game 90-60 (60%)
ARI @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
PIT @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
TB @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
DET @ IND TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 60-30 (67%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.