Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 9.
15 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-2, +1.8u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 40-37, -5.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  NYJThu, Oct 31 20:15 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 43.5 | HOU 13 at NYJ 21NYJ +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CHI @  ARISun, Nov 3 16:05 ET | ARI +1.5 | 44.5 | CHI 9 at ARI 29ARI +1.5 closed · ARI covered |
 DAL @  ATLSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 52 | DAL 21 at ATL 27ATL +3 closed · ATL covered |
 DEN @  BALSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | BAL +9 | 46.5 | DEN 10 at BAL 41BAL +9 closed · BAL covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Nov 3 16:25 ET | GB -2.5 | 47.5 | DET 24 at GB 14GB -2.5 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  MINSun, Nov 3 20:20 ET | MIN +6.5 | 47 | IND 13 at MIN 21MIN +6.5 closed · MIN covered |
 JAX @  PHISun, Nov 3 16:05 ET | PHI +7.5 | 46 | JAX 23 at PHI 28PHI +7.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  CLESun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | CLE -2 | 42.5 | LAC 27 at CLE 10CLE -2 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  SEASun, Nov 3 16:25 ET | SEA -1.5 | 48.5 | LA 26 at SEA 20SEA -1.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  CINSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | CIN +8 | 45 | LV 24 at CIN 41CIN +8 closed · CIN covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | BUF +6.5 | 49 | MIA 27 at BUF 30BUF +6.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  TENSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 38.5 | NE 17 at TEN 20TEN +3 closed · push |
 NO @  CARSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | CAR -7 | 43.5 | NO 22 at CAR 23CAR -7 closed · CAR covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Nov 3 13:00 ET | NYG -4.5 | 44.5 | WAS 27 at NYG 22NYG -4.5 closed · WAS covered |
 TB @  KCMon, Nov 4 20:15 ET | KC +9 | 45.5 | TB 24 at KC 30KC +9 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
IND @ MIN - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, in a dome 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, worse record 54-33 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, worse record 63-40 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
MIA @ BUF - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 36-23 (61%)
NO @ CAR - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 35-22 (61%)
TB @ KC TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
DET @ GB TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 98-64 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
WAS @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.