Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 17.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-4, -2.4u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 65-67, -6.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  HOUWed, Dec 25 16:30 ET | HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | BAL 31 at HOU 2HOU -5.5 closed · BAL covered |
 KC @  PITWed, Dec 25 13:00 ET | PIT -3 | 43.5 | KC 29 at PIT 10PIT -3 closed · KC covered |
 SEA @  CHIThu, Dec 26 20:15 ET | CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | SEA 6 at CHI 3CHI -3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 ARI @  LASat, Dec 28 20:15 ET | LA +6.5 | 48 | ARI 9 at LA 13LA +6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 DEN @  CINSat, Dec 28 16:30 ET | CIN +3.5 | 50.5 | DEN 24 at CIN 30CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 LAC @  NESat, Dec 28 13:00 ET | NE -6 | 42 | LAC 40 at NE 7NE -6 closed · LAC covered |
 ATL @  WASSun, Dec 29 20:20 ET | WAS +3.5 | 46.5 | ATL 24 at WAS 30WAS +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | TB +9.5 | 47.5 | CAR 14 at TB 48TB +9.5 closed · TB covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | PHI +7.5 | 37.5 | DAL 7 at PHI 41PHI +7.5 closed · PHI covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Dec 29 16:25 ET | MIN -1 | 49 | GB 25 at MIN 27MIN -1 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  NYGSun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | NYG -7.5 | 40.5 | IND 33 at NYG 45NYG -7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 LV @  NOSun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | NO -2 | 37.5 | LV 25 at NO 10NO -2 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  CLESun, Dec 29 16:05 ET | CLE -3 | 32.5 | MIA 20 at CLE 3CLE -3 closed · MIA covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | BUF +10 | 44.5 | NYJ 14 at BUF 40BUF +10 closed · BUF covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Dec 29 13:00 ET | JAX -1 | 38 | TEN 13 at JAX 20JAX -1 closed · JAX covered |
 DET @  SFMon, Dec 30 20:15 ET | SF -4 | 50.5 | DET 40 at SF 34SF -4 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ SF - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 22-12 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 20-12 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, worse QB, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
MIA @ CLE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 98-64 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 102-78 (57%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
NYJ @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 98-64 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ TB TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ JAX TOTAL- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 102-78 (57%)
- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
LV @ NO TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.