Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 13.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-5, -0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 53-51, -4.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHI @  DETThu, Nov 28 12:30 ET | DET +9.5 | 47.5 | CHI 20 at DET 23DET +9.5 closed · CHI covered |
 MIA @  GBThu, Nov 28 20:20 ET | GB +3.5 | 47.5 | MIA 17 at GB 30GB +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 NYG @  DALThu, Nov 28 16:30 ET | DAL +4.5 | 39 | NYG 20 at DAL 27DAL +4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 LV @  KCFri, Nov 29 15:00 ET | KC +13.5 | 42 | LV 17 at KC 19KC +13.5 closed · LV covered |
 ARI @  MINSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 45.5 | ARI 22 at MIN 23MIN +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 44.5 | HOU 23 at JAX 20JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 IND @  NESun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | NE -2.5 | 41.5 | IND 25 at NE 24NE -2.5 closed · NE covered |
 LAC @  ATLSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | ATL -1 | 47 | LAC 17 at ATL 13ATL -1 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  NOSun, Dec 1 16:05 ET | NO -2.5 | 48.5 | LA 21 at NO 14NO -2.5 closed · LA covered |
 PHI @  BALSun, Dec 1 16:25 ET | BAL +3 | 50 | PHI 24 at BAL 19BAL +3 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 46 | PIT 44 at CIN 38CIN +3 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  NYJSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | NYJ +1 | 41.5 | SEA 26 at NYJ 21NYJ +1 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  BUFSun, Dec 1 20:20 ET | BUF +6.5 | 45 | SF 10 at BUF 35BUF +6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Dec 1 16:05 ET | CAR -6.5 | 46 | TB 26 at CAR 23CAR -6.5 closed · CAR covered |
 TEN @  WASSun, Dec 1 13:00 ET | WAS +6 | 45 | TEN 19 at WAS 42WAS +6 closed · WAS covered |
 CLE @  DENMon, Dec 2 20:15 ET | DEN +6.5 | 41.5 | CLE 32 at DEN 41DEN +6.5 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ MIN - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 63-41 (61%)
LAC @ ATL - model likes them by 2.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, elite QB 32-19 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 45-27 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 34-21 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CHI @ DET - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, division game, in a dome 57-34 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 63-41 (61%)
IND @ NE - model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, worse QB 69-45 (60%)
MIA @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 24-14 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better coach 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 90-58 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
PHI @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, better record 20-13 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ CIN - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 66-40 (62%)
TB @ CAR - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 90-58 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 112-74 (60%)
NYG @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
PHI @ BAL TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 59-35 (63%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.