Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 10.
14 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 43-40, -6.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  BALThu, Nov 7 20:15 ET | BAL +6 | 53 | CIN 34 at BAL 35BAL +6 closed · CIN covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | NO -3.5 | 46.5 | ATL 17 at NO 20NO -3.5 closed · NO covered |
 BUF @  INDSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | IND -4.5 | 46.5 | BUF 30 at IND 20IND -4.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | KC +7.5 | 42.5 | DEN 14 at KC 16KC +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  HOUSun, Nov 10 20:20 ET | HOU -4.5 | 49 | DET 26 at HOU 23HOU -4.5 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  JAXSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | JAX -7 | 42.5 | MIN 12 at JAX 7JAX -7 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  CHISun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | CHI +6.5 | 37.5 | NE 19 at CHI 3CHI +6.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  CARSun, Nov 10 09:30 ET | CAR -6.5 | 40.5 | NYG 17 at CAR 20CAR -6.5 closed · CAR covered |
 NYJ @  ARISun, Nov 10 16:25 ET | ARI -2 | 45.5 | NYJ 6 at ARI 31ARI -2 closed · ARI covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Nov 10 16:25 ET | DAL -7.5 | 44.5 | PHI 34 at DAL 6DAL -7.5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  WASSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | WAS +1.5 | 45 | PIT 28 at WAS 27WAS +1.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  TBSun, Nov 10 13:00 ET | TB -6.5 | 50.5 | SF 23 at TB 20TB -6.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  LACSun, Nov 10 16:05 ET | LAC +8 | 40 | TEN 17 at LAC 27LAC +8 closed · LAC covered |
 MIA @  LAMon, Nov 11 20:15 ET | LA +2.5 | 49.5 | MIA 23 at LA 15LA +2.5 closed · MIA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ BAL - model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, high total (48+) 14-9 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
MIA @ LAR - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 84-56 (60%)
NE @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
MIN @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
TEN @ LAC TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
SF @ TB TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 59-35 (63%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.