Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 7.
15 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-3, +0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 31-29, -3.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  NOThu, Oct 17 20:15 ET | NO -2.5 | 37 | DEN 33 at NO 10NO -2.5 closed · DEN covered |
 CAR @  WASSun, Oct 20 16:05 ET | WAS +10 | 51 | CAR 7 at WAS 40WAS +10 closed · WAS covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | CLE -5.5 | 42 | CIN 21 at CLE 14CLE -5.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 50.5 | DET 31 at MIN 29MIN +1 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  GBSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | GB +3 | 48 | HOU 22 at GB 24GB +3 closed · HOU covered |
 KC @  SFSun, Oct 20 16:25 ET | SF +2.5 | 47.5 | KC 28 at SF 18SF +2.5 closed · KC covered |
 LV @  LASun, Oct 20 16:05 ET | LA +7 | 43 | LV 15 at LA 20LA +7 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  INDSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 44 | MIA 10 at IND 16IND +3 closed · IND covered |
 NE @  JAXSun, Oct 20 09:30 ET | JAX +6.5 | 42 | NE 16 at JAX 32JAX +6.5 closed · JAX covered |
 NYJ @  PITSun, Oct 20 20:20 ET | PIT -3 | 40 | NYJ 15 at PIT 37PIT -3 closed · PIT covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 42 | PHI 28 at NYG 3NYG -3 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  ATLSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 51.5 | SEA 34 at ATL 14ATL +3 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  BUFSun, Oct 20 13:00 ET | BUF +9.5 | 41 | TEN 10 at BUF 34BUF +9.5 closed · BUF covered |
 BAL @  TBMon, Oct 21 20:15 ET | TB -4.5 | 51 | BAL 41 at TB 31TB -4.5 closed · BAL covered |
 LAC @  ARIMon, Oct 21 21:00 ET | ARI -1 | 44 | LAC 15 at ARI 17ARI -1 closed · ARI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ ATL - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 25-12 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 25-14 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
TEN @ BUF - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, low total (41 or under) 35-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 72-45 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
DET @ MIN - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 45-21 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 25-12 (68%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
MIA @ IND - model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 32-18 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 38-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 84-56 (60%)
NE @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
DEN @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
TEN @ BUF TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.