Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 2.
16 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +5.7u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 9-9, -1.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  MIAThu, Sep 12 20:15 ET | MIA +2.5 | 48.5 | BUF 31 at MIA 10MIA +2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  HOUSun, Sep 15 20:20 ET | HOU +6 | 45.5 | CHI 13 at HOU 19HOU +6 closed · push |
 CIN @  KCSun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | KC +6.5 | 47.5 | CIN 25 at KC 26KC +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  JAXSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | JAX +3 | 41.5 | CLE 18 at JAX 13JAX +3 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  GBSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | GB -3 | 41.5 | IND 10 at GB 16GB -3 closed · GB covered |
 LAC @  CARSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | CAR -5 | 39 | LAC 26 at CAR 3CAR -5 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Sep 15 16:05 ET | ARI -1 | 47.5 | LA 10 at ARI 41ARI -1 closed · ARI covered |
 LV @  BALSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | BAL +9 | 41 | LV 26 at BAL 23BAL +9 closed · LV covered |
 NO @  DALSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | DAL +6.5 | 47 | NO 44 at DAL 19DAL +6.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | WAS +1.5 | 42.5 | NYG 18 at WAS 21WAS +1.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NYJ @  TENSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 41.5 | NYJ 24 at TEN 17TEN -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  DENSun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | DEN -3 | 36.5 | PIT 13 at DEN 6DEN -3 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  NESun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | NE -3.5 | 39 | SEA 23 at NE 20NE -3.5 closed · NE covered |
 SF @  MINSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | MIN -4.5 | 46.5 | SF 17 at MIN 23MIN -4.5 closed · MIN covered |
 TB @  DETSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | DET +7.5 | 51.5 | TB 20 at DET 16DET +7.5 closed · TB covered |
 ATL @  PHIMon, Sep 16 20:15 ET | PHI +5.5 | 46.5 | ATL 22 at PHI 21PHI +5.5 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ PHI - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 45-21 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 39-20 (66%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 81-49 (62%)
NO @ DAL - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better coach, in a dome 54-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better coach, in a dome 48-28 (63%)
CIN @ KC - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 97-58 (63%)
NYG @ WAS - model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 24-14 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 28-17 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
BUF @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
SEA @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
PIT @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
LV @ BAL TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
LAC @ CAR TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.