Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 4.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-2, +4.8u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 18-20, -4.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  NYGThu, Sep 26 20:15 ET | NYG -5.5 | 45 | DAL 20 at NYG 15NYG -5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 BUF @  BALSun, Sep 29 20:20 ET | BAL +2.5 | 46.5 | BUF 10 at BAL 35BAL +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CIN @  CARSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | CAR -4.5 | 47 | CIN 34 at CAR 24CAR -4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  LVSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET | LV -2.5 | 36.5 | CLE 16 at LV 20LV -2.5 closed · LV covered |
 DEN @  NYJSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | NYJ +7.5 | 39.5 | DEN 10 at NYJ 9NYJ +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | HOU +5.5 | 44.5 | JAX 20 at HOU 24HOU +5.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  LACSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET | LAC -7.5 | 41.5 | KC 17 at LAC 10LAC -7.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LA @  CHISun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 40 | LA 18 at CHI 24CHI +3 closed · CHI covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | GB +2.5 | 44 | MIN 31 at GB 29GB +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  SFSun, Sep 29 16:05 ET | SF +10.5 | 41.5 | NE 13 at SF 30SF +10.5 closed · SF covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 41.5 | NO 24 at ATL 26ATL +2.5 closed · NO covered |
 PHI @  TBSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | TB -1 | 42 | PHI 16 at TB 33TB -1 closed · TB covered |
 PIT @  INDSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET | IND -2.5 | 40 | PIT 24 at IND 27IND -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 WAS @  ARISun, Sep 29 16:05 ET | ARI +3.5 | 49 | WAS 42 at ARI 14ARI +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 SEA @  DETMon, Sep 30 20:15 ET | DET +3.5 | 46.5 | SEA 29 at DET 42DET +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 TEN @  MIAMon, Sep 30 19:30 ET | MIA +2.5 | 37 | TEN 31 at MIA 12MIA +2.5 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, in a dome 17-11 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 63-41 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 70-46 (60%)
BUF @ BAL - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better record 17-8 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 15-9 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 24-15 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BUF @ BAL TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
DAL @ NYG TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
MIN @ GB TOTAL- under when windy 253-194 (57%)
CLE @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
PIT @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 116-78 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
TEN @ MIA TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.