Weekly Lines · 2024
Week 5.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2024. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 22-24, -5.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 TB @  ATLThu, Oct 3 20:15 ET | ATL +2.5 | 44 | TB 30 at ATL 36ATL +2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Oct 6 16:05 ET | SF +7 | 48.5 | ARI 24 at SF 23SF +7 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | BAL 41 at CIN 38CIN -2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  HOUSun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | HOU +1 | 48 | BUF 20 at HOU 23HOU +1 closed · HOU covered |
 CAR @  CHISun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | CHI +4 | 40 | CAR 10 at CHI 36CHI +4 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  WASSun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | WAS +3 | 44 | CLE 13 at WAS 34WAS +3 closed · WAS covered |
 DAL @  PITSun, Oct 6 20:20 ET | PIT +2.5 | 43.5 | DAL 20 at PIT 17PIT +2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  LASun, Oct 6 16:25 ET | LA -3 | 49.5 | GB 24 at LA 19LA -3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | JAX +3.5 | 45 | IND 34 at JAX 37JAX +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 LV @  DENSun, Oct 6 16:05 ET | DEN +3 | 36 | LV 18 at DEN 34DEN +3 closed · DEN covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Oct 6 13:00 ET | NE -2 | 37 | MIA 15 at NE 10NE -2 closed · MIA covered |
 NYG @  SEASun, Oct 6 16:25 ET | SEA +7 | 42.5 | NYG 29 at SEA 20SEA +7 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  MINSun, Oct 6 09:30 ET | MIN +2.5 | 42 | NYJ 17 at MIN 23MIN +2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  KCMon, Oct 7 20:15 ET | KC +5.5 | 43 | NO 13 at KC 26KC +5.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week, worse QB 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, got blown out last week 19-12 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week 19-12 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ HOU - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 31-18 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 32-19 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 45-27 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 134-92 (59%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 166-118 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYJ @ MIN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 240-187 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 160-128 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 447-362 (55%)
MIA @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 232-183 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
NYG @ SEA TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-30 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 97-77 (56%)
LV @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
CAR @ CHI TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 230-188 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.