Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 1.
16 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-1, +4.9u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 6-1, +4.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  PHIThu, Sep 4 20:20 ET | PHI +8.5 | 47.5 | DAL 20 at PHI 24PHI +8.5 closed · DAL covered |
 KC @  LACFri, Sep 5 20:00 ET | LAC -3 | 47.5 | KC 21 at LAC 27LAC -3 closed · LAC covered |
 ARI @  NOSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | NO -6 | 44.5 | ARI 20 at NO 13NO -6 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  BUFSun, Sep 7 20:20 ET | BUF -1.5 | 50.5 | BAL 40 at BUF 41BUF -1.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  JAXSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | JAX +4.5 | 45.5 | CAR 10 at JAX 26JAX +4.5 closed · JAX covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | CLE -5.5 | 47.5 | CIN 17 at CLE 16CLE -5.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Sep 7 16:25 ET | GB +1.5 | 48.5 | DET 13 at GB 27GB +1.5 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  LASun, Sep 7 16:25 ET | LA +3.5 | 43.5 | HOU 9 at LA 14LA +3.5 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  NESun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | NE +2.5 | 44.5 | LV 20 at NE 13NE +2.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIA @  INDSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | IND +1.5 | 47.5 | MIA 8 at IND 33IND +1.5 closed · IND covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | WAS +6 | 45.5 | NYG 6 at WAS 21WAS +6 closed · WAS covered |
 PIT @  NYJSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 37.5 | PIT 34 at NYJ 32NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Sep 7 16:05 ET | SEA -2.5 | 43.5 | SF 17 at SEA 13SEA -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Sep 7 13:00 ET | ATL -1.5 | 47.5 | TB 23 at ATL 20ATL -1.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  DENSun, Sep 7 16:05 ET | DEN +8.5 | 42.5 | TEN 12 at DEN 20DEN +8.5 closed · TEN covered |
 MIN @  CHIMon, Sep 8 20:15 ET | CHI -1.5 | 43.5 | MIN 27 at CHI 24CHI -1.5 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 92-58 (61%)
BAL @ BUF - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 49-28 (64%)
NYG @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 36-24 (60%)
CAR @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
LV @ NE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
DET @ GB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.