Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 9.
14 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-4, -0.4u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 36-43, -21.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  MIAThu, Oct 30 20:15 ET | MIA -7.5 | 51.5 | BAL 28 at MIA 6MIA -7.5 closed · BAL covered |
 ATL @  NESun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | NE +5.5 | 45.5 | ATL 23 at NE 24NE +5.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  GBSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | GB +12.5 | 43.5 | CAR 16 at GB 13GB +12.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  CINSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | CIN -3 | 51.5 | CHI 47 at CIN 42CIN -3 closed · CHI covered |
 DEN @  HOUSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | HOU +1.5 | 40.5 | DEN 18 at HOU 15HOU +1.5 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  PITSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | PIT -3.5 | 51.5 | IND 20 at PIT 27PIT -3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 JAX @  LVSun, Nov 2 16:05 ET | LV -2.5 | 43.5 | JAX 30 at LV 29LV -2.5 closed · LV covered |
 KC @  BUFSun, Nov 2 16:25 ET | BUF -2.5 | 53.5 | KC 21 at BUF 28BUF -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 LAC @  TENSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | TEN -10 | 44.5 | LAC 27 at TEN 20TEN -10 closed · TEN covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | DET +9.5 | 47.5 | MIN 27 at DET 24DET +9.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  LASun, Nov 2 16:05 ET | LA +14 | 44.5 | NO 10 at LA 34LA +14 closed · LA covered |
 SEA @  WASSun, Nov 2 20:20 ET | WAS -2.5 | 47.5 | SEA 38 at WAS 14WAS -2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  NYGSun, Nov 2 13:00 ET | NYG -2.5 | 47.5 | SF 34 at NYG 24NYG -2.5 closed · SF covered |
 ARI @  DALMon, Nov 3 20:15 ET | DAL +3.5 | 53.5 | ARI 27 at DAL 17DAL +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DEN @ HOU - model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 26-15 (63%)
ATL @ NE - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 35-22 (61%)
SEA @ WAS - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 34-22 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, elite QB 35-23 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LAC @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
CAR @ GB TOTAL- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
DEN @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
MIN @ DET TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
BAL @ MIA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.