Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 10.
14 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +0.4u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 43-49, -20.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LV @  DENThu, Nov 6 20:15 ET | DEN +9.5 | 42.5 | LV 7 at DEN 10DEN +9.5 closed · LV covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Nov 9 16:05 ET | SEA +7 | 44.5 | ARI 22 at SEA 44SEA +7 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  INDSun, Nov 9 09:30 ET | IND +6.5 | 48.5 | ATL 25 at IND 31IND +6.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  MINSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | MIN -4.5 | 48.5 | BAL 27 at MIN 19MIN -4.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | MIA -8.5 | 50.5 | BUF 13 at MIA 30MIA -8.5 closed · MIA covered |
 CLE @  NYJSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | NYJ -1.5 | 37.5 | CLE 20 at NYJ 27NYJ -1.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 DET @  WASSun, Nov 9 16:25 ET | WAS -8.5 | 49.5 | DET 44 at WAS 22WAS -8.5 closed · DET covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | HOU -1.5 | 37.5 | JAX 29 at HOU 36HOU -1.5 closed · HOU covered |
 LA @  SFSun, Nov 9 16:25 ET | SF -5.5 | 49.5 | LA 42 at SF 26SF -5.5 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  TBSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | TB +2.5 | 48.5 | NE 28 at TB 23TB +2.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  CARSun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | CAR +5.5 | 38.5 | NO 17 at CAR 7CAR +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  CHISun, Nov 9 13:00 ET | CHI +4.5 | 45.5 | NYG 20 at CHI 24CHI +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PIT @  LACSun, Nov 9 20:20 ET | LAC +3 | 45.5 | PIT 10 at LAC 25LAC +3 closed · LAC covered |
 PHI @  GBMon, Nov 10 20:15 ET | GB +1.5 | 45.5 | PHI 10 at GB 7GB +1.5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DET @ WAS - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 63-39 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 37-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 77-48 (62%)
PHI @ GB - model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, worse record, worse QB 76-50 (60%)
JAC @ HOU - model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, in a dome 65-43 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, on turf 54-36 (60%)
LAR @ SF - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
CLE @ NYJ - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, on turf 54-36 (60%)
NE @ TB - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 18-11 (62%)
DET @ WAS TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NYG @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
JAX @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
CLE @ NYJ TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
LA @ SF TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
BUF @ MIA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.