Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 7.
15 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-9, -6.0u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 29-33, -17.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  CINThu, Oct 16 20:15 ET | CIN -5.5 | 45.5 | PIT 31 at CIN 33CIN -5.5 closed · CIN covered |
 ATL @  SFSun, Oct 19 20:20 ET | SF +1.5 | 46.5 | ATL 10 at SF 20SF +1.5 closed · SF covered |
 CAR @  NYJSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | NYJ +1.5 | 39.5 | CAR 13 at NYJ 6NYJ +1.5 closed · CAR covered |
 GB @  ARISun, Oct 19 16:25 ET | ARI -7 | 44.5 | GB 27 at ARI 23ARI -7 closed · ARI covered |
 IND @  LACSun, Oct 19 16:05 ET | LAC +2.5 | 48.5 | IND 38 at LAC 24LAC +2.5 closed · IND covered |
 LA @  JAXSun, Oct 19 09:30 ET | JAX -3 | 44.5 | LA 35 at JAX 7JAX -3 closed · LA covered |
 LV @  KCSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | KC +13.5 | 44.5 | LV 0 at KC 31KC +13.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  CLESun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 34.5 | MIA 6 at CLE 31CLE +2.5 closed · CLE covered |
 NE @  TENSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | TEN -6.5 | 40.5 | NE 31 at TEN 13TEN -6.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  CHISun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | CHI +4.5 | 43.5 | NO 14 at CHI 26CHI +4.5 closed · CHI covered |
 NYG @  DENSun, Oct 19 16:05 ET | DEN +7.5 | 39.5 | NYG 32 at DEN 33DEN +7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  MINSun, Oct 19 13:00 ET | MIN -2.5 | 43.5 | PHI 28 at MIN 22MIN -2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Oct 19 16:25 ET | DAL +1.5 | 54.5 | WAS 22 at DAL 44DAL +1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 HOU @  SEAMon, Oct 20 22:00 ET | SEA +3 | 41.5 | HOU 19 at SEA 27SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  DETMon, Oct 20 19:00 ET | DET +6 | 54.5 | TB 9 at DET 24DET +6 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ SF LOSS ATL +1.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, better QB 77-51 (60%)
TB @ DET LOSS DET -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 94-60 (61%)
GB @ ARI WIN GB -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, in a dome 44-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, in a dome 51-28 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), won last week, in a dome 54-31 (64%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
HOU @ SEA WIN HOU +3 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 19-12 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LAR @ JAC LOSS LAR -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
CAR @ NYJ WIN NYJ -1.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 73-47 (61%)
PHI @ MIN LOSS PHI -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 92-58 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, on turf 31-20 (61%)
WAS @ DAL LOSS WAS +1.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 47-21 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 41-20 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 71-44 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NO @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
MIA @ CLE TOTALLOSS Under 34.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 97-72 (57%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
NE @ TEN TOTALLOSS Under 40.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 105-79 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LA @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 44.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
CAR @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
WAS @ DAL TOTALLOSS Under 54.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.