Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 5.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-5, -3.8u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 18-20, -11.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  LAThu, Oct 2 20:15 ET | LA +8.5 | 43.5 | SF 26 at LA 23LA +8.5 closed · SF covered |
 DAL @  NYJSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | NYJ +1.5 | 48.5 | DAL 37 at NYJ 22NYJ +1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  PHISun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | PHI +3.5 | 44.5 | DEN 21 at PHI 17PHI +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  CINSun, Oct 5 16:25 ET | CIN -10.5 | 49.5 | DET 37 at CIN 24CIN -10.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  BALSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | BAL -2.5 | 41.5 | HOU 44 at BAL 10BAL -2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 LV @  INDSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | IND +7 | 46.5 | LV 6 at IND 40IND +7 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  CARSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | CAR -1.5 | 44.5 | MIA 24 at CAR 27CAR -1.5 closed · CAR covered |
 MIN @  CLESun, Oct 5 09:30 ET | CLE -3.5 | 35.5 | MIN 21 at CLE 17CLE -3.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Oct 5 20:20 ET | BUF +7.5 | 49.5 | NE 23 at BUF 20BUF +7.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  NOSun, Oct 5 13:00 ET | NO +1.5 | 41.5 | NYG 14 at NO 26NO +1.5 closed · NO covered |
 TB @  SEASun, Oct 5 16:05 ET | SEA +3.5 | 44.5 | TB 38 at SEA 35SEA +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  ARISun, Oct 5 16:05 ET | ARI +7.5 | 41.5 | TEN 22 at ARI 21ARI +7.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  LACSun, Oct 5 16:25 ET | LAC +2.5 | 47.5 | WAS 27 at LAC 10LAC +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 KC @  JAXMon, Oct 6 20:15 ET | JAX -3.5 | 45.5 | KC 28 at JAX 31JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ IND - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, on turf 98-64 (60%)
KC @ JAC - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
MIA @ CAR - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 47-21 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 22-10 (69%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, less rest than the opponent 29-14 (67%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NE @ BUF - model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 76-48 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), blew someone out last week, division game 15-10 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse record, division game 30-20 (60%)
NYG @ NO - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, better QB 25-16 (61%)
TB @ SEA - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 50-32 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 18-12 (60%)
TEN @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 36-14 (72%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, lost last week 15-6 (71%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), less rest than the opponent, worse record 29-13 (69%)
- and 30 more angles on this side
KC @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
DAL @ NYJ TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 60-38 (61%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
NE @ BUF TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.