Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 4.
16 games and 8 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-5, -5.8u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 13-15, -7.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  ARIThu, Sep 25 20:15 ET | ARI -1.5 | 43.5 | SEA 23 at ARI 20ARI -1.5 closed · SEA covered |
 BAL @  KCSun, Sep 28 16:25 ET | KC -2.5 | 48.5 | BAL 20 at KC 37KC -2.5 closed · KC covered |
 CAR @  NESun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | NE +5.5 | 42.5 | CAR 13 at NE 42NE +5.5 closed · NE covered |
 CHI @  LVSun, Sep 28 16:25 ET | LV +1.5 | 47.5 | CHI 25 at LV 24LV +1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  DETSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | DET +10 | 44.5 | CLE 10 at DET 34DET +10 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  DALSun, Sep 28 20:20 ET | DAL -7 | 47.5 | GB 40 at DAL 40DAL -7 closed · DAL covered |
 IND @  LASun, Sep 28 16:05 ET | LA +3.5 | 49.5 | IND 20 at LA 27LA +3.5 closed · LA covered |
 JAX @  SFSun, Sep 28 16:05 ET | SF +3.5 | 45.5 | JAX 26 at SF 21SF +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LAC @  NYGSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | NYG -6 | 43.5 | LAC 18 at NYG 21NYG -6 closed · NYG covered |
 MIN @  PITSun, Sep 28 09:30 ET | PIT -2.5 | 41.5 | MIN 21 at PIT 24PIT -2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 NO @  BUFSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | BUF +15.5 | 48.5 | NO 19 at BUF 31BUF +15.5 closed · NO covered |
 PHI @  TBSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | TB -3.5 | 44.5 | PHI 31 at TB 25TB -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 39.5 | TEN 0 at HOU 26HOU +7.5 closed · HOU covered |
 WAS @  ATLSun, Sep 28 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 43.5 | WAS 27 at ATL 34ATL +2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  DENMon, Sep 29 20:15 ET | DEN +7.5 | 44.5 | CIN 3 at DEN 28DEN +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 NYJ @  MIAMon, Sep 29 19:15 ET | MIA +2.5 | 44.5 | NYJ 21 at MIA 27MIA +2.5 closed · MIA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
WAS @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 36-14 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 28-15 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 46-27 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CLE @ DET - model likes them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 22-14 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), less rest than the opponent, elite QB 25-16 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 70-46 (60%)
IND @ LAR - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 94-60 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 79-52 (60%)
MIN @ PIT - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
NYJ @ MIA - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 50-32 (61%)
SEA @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 45-23 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 64-35 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, in a dome 52-33 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
TEN @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
CLE @ DET TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.