Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 15.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-2, +0.7u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 70-71, -24.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  TBThu, Dec 11 20:15 ET | TB +6 | 43.5 | ATL 29 at TB 28TB +6 closed · ATL covered |
 ARI @  HOUSun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | HOU +10.5 | 42.5 | ARI 20 at HOU 40HOU +10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 | BAL 24 at CIN 0CIN -2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | NE -2.5 | 49.5 | BUF 35 at NE 31NE -2.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 14 16:25 ET | NO -2.5 | 41.5 | CAR 17 at NO 20NO -2.5 closed · NO covered |
 CLE @  CHISun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | CHI +7.5 | 38.5 | CLE 3 at CHI 31CHI +7.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DET @  LASun, Dec 14 16:25 ET | LA +5.5 | 54.5 | DET 34 at LA 41LA +5.5 closed · LA covered |
 GB @  DENSun, Dec 14 16:25 ET | DEN -1.5 | 42.5 | GB 26 at DEN 34DEN -1.5 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  SEASun, Dec 14 16:25 ET | SEA +13.5 | 41.5 | IND 16 at SEA 18SEA +13.5 closed · IND covered |
 LAC @  KCSun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | KC +5.5 | 41.5 | LAC 16 at KC 13KC +5.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LV @  PHISun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | PHI +12.5 | 37.5 | LV 0 at PHI 31PHI +12.5 closed · PHI covered |
 MIN @  DALSun, Dec 14 20:20 ET | DAL +5.5 | 47.5 | MIN 34 at DAL 26DAL +5.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NYJ @  JAXSun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | JAX +13.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 20 at JAX 48JAX +13.5 closed · JAX covered |
 TEN @  SFSun, Dec 14 16:25 ET | SF +12.5 | 44.5 | TEN 24 at SF 37SF +12.5 closed · SF covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Dec 14 13:00 ET | NYG +2.5 | 46.5 | WAS 29 at NYG 21NYG +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 MIA @  PITMon, Dec 15 20:15 ET | PIT +3 | 42.5 | MIA 15 at PIT 28PIT +3 closed · PIT covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, division game, high total (48+) 14-7 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 49-28 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, division game 55-33 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
BAL @ CIN - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 43-28 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, on turf 54-36 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 36-24 (60%)
LAC @ KC - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 71-44 (62%)
MIA @ PIT - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 92-61 (60%)
BAL @ CIN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LV @ PHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 105-79 (57%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.