Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 2.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-3, -0.3u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 9-4, +4.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS @  GBThu, Sep 11 20:15 ET | GB +3.5 | 48.5 | WAS 18 at GB 27GB +3.5 closed · GB covered |
 ATL @  MINSun, Sep 14 20:20 ET | MIN +3.5 | 44.5 | ATL 22 at MIN 6MIN +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | NYJ -6 | 47.5 | BUF 30 at NYJ 10NYJ -6 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  ARISun, Sep 14 16:05 ET | ARI +7 | 45.5 | CAR 22 at ARI 27ARI +7 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | DET +6 | 46.5 | CHI 21 at DET 52DET +6 closed · DET covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | BAL +12.5 | 46.5 | CLE 17 at BAL 41BAL +12.5 closed · BAL covered |
 DEN @  INDSun, Sep 14 16:05 ET | IND -2.5 | 43.5 | DEN 28 at IND 29IND -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  CINSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 49.5 | JAX 27 at CIN 31CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 LA @  TENSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | TEN -5.5 | 41.5 | LA 33 at TEN 19TEN -5.5 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  MIASun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | MIA +1.5 | 43.5 | NE 33 at MIA 27MIA +1.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | DAL +4.5 | 44.5 | NYG 37 at DAL 40DAL +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  KCSun, Sep 14 16:25 ET | KC -1.5 | 46.5 | PHI 20 at KC 17KC -1.5 closed · PHI covered |
 SEA @  PITSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | PIT +3.5 | 40.5 | SEA 31 at PIT 17PIT +3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  NOSun, Sep 14 13:00 ET | NO -3 | 40.5 | SF 26 at NO 21NO -3 closed · SF covered |
 LAC @  LVMon, Sep 15 22:00 ET | LV -3.5 | 46.5 | LAC 20 at LV 9LV -3.5 closed · LAC covered |
 TB @  HOUMon, Sep 15 19:00 ET | HOU +2.5 | 42.5 | TB 20 at HOU 19HOU +2.5 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CLE @ BAL - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 43-28 (61%)
DEN @ IND - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 69-39 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better QB, in a dome 61-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 92-58 (61%)
TB @ HOU - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 73-48 (60%)
SF @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better QB, in a dome 61-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 92-58 (61%)
SF @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
ATL @ MIN TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.