Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 3.
16 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 1-6, -6.7u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 10-10, -2.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  BUFThu, Sep 18 20:15 ET | BUF +12.5 | 50.5 | MIA 21 at BUF 31BUF +12.5 closed · MIA covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Sep 21 16:25 ET | SF +1.5 | 44.5 | ARI 15 at SF 16SF +1.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | CAR -5.5 | 44.5 | ATL 0 at CAR 30CAR -5.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CIN @  MINSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | MIN +3 | 41.5 | CIN 10 at MIN 48MIN +3 closed · MIN covered |
 DAL @  CHISun, Sep 21 16:25 ET | CHI -1.5 | 49.5 | DAL 14 at CHI 31CHI -1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DEN @  LACSun, Sep 21 16:05 ET | LAC +2.5 | 45.5 | DEN 20 at LAC 23LAC +2.5 closed · LAC covered |
 GB @  CLESun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | CLE -8.5 | 41.5 | GB 10 at CLE 13CLE -8.5 closed · CLE covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | JAX +1.5 | 43.5 | HOU 10 at JAX 17JAX +1.5 closed · JAX covered |
 IND @  TENSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | TEN -6 | 43.5 | IND 41 at TEN 20TEN -6 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  NYGSun, Sep 21 20:20 ET | NYG -6 | 44.5 | KC 22 at NYG 9NYG -6 closed · KC covered |
 LA @  PHISun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | PHI +3.5 | 45.5 | LA 26 at PHI 33PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 LV @  WASSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | WAS +2.5 | 43.5 | LV 24 at WAS 41WAS +2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NO @  SEASun, Sep 21 16:05 ET | SEA +7.5 | 41.5 | NO 13 at SEA 44SEA +7.5 closed · SEA covered |
 NYJ @  TBSun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | TB +6.5 | 43.5 | NYJ 27 at TB 29TB +6.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  NESun, Sep 21 13:00 ET | NE -1.5 | 44.5 | PIT 21 at NE 14NE -1.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DET @  BALMon, Sep 22 20:15 ET | BAL +4.5 | 53.5 | DET 38 at BAL 30BAL +4.5 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ MIN - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 54-33 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 94-60 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 79-52 (60%)
PIT @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 27-15 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, bad QB 31-18 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
DAL @ CHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
NO @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
IND @ TEN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
DEN @ LAC TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
MIA @ BUF TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.