Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 13.
16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 10-6, +2.2u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 62-64, -24.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  BALThu, Nov 27 20:20 ET | BAL +7 | 52.5 | CIN 32 at BAL 14BAL +7 closed · CIN covered |
 GB @  DETThu, Nov 27 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 48.5 | GB 31 at DET 24DET +2.5 closed · GB covered |
 KC @  DALThu, Nov 27 16:30 ET | DAL -3.5 | 53.5 | KC 28 at DAL 31DAL -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 CHI @  PHIFri, Nov 28 15:00 ET | PHI +7 | 43.5 | CHI 24 at PHI 15PHI +7 closed · CHI covered |
 ARI @  TBSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | TB +4.5 | 44.5 | ARI 17 at TB 20TB +4.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NYJSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | NYJ -3 | 38.5 | ATL 24 at NYJ 27NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered |
 BUF @  PITSun, Nov 30 16:25 ET | PIT -3 | 44.5 | BUF 26 at PIT 7PIT -3 closed · BUF covered |
 DEN @  WASSun, Nov 30 20:20 ET | WAS -6.5 | 43.5 | DEN 27 at WAS 26WAS -6.5 closed · WAS covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | IND +3 | 44.5 | HOU 20 at IND 16IND +3 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | TEN -6 | 42.5 | JAX 25 at TEN 3TEN -6 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  CARSun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | CAR -10 | 44.5 | LA 28 at CAR 31CAR -10 closed · CAR covered |
 LV @  LACSun, Nov 30 16:25 ET | LAC +10 | 40.5 | LV 14 at LAC 31LAC +10 closed · LAC covered |
 MIN @  SEASun, Nov 30 16:05 ET | SEA +12.5 | 42.5 | MIN 0 at SEA 26SEA +12.5 closed · SEA covered |
 NO @  MIASun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | MIA +5.5 | 41.5 | NO 17 at MIA 21MIA +5.5 closed · NO covered |
 SF @  CLESun, Nov 30 13:00 ET | CLE -5.5 | 35.5 | SF 26 at CLE 8CLE -5.5 closed · SF covered |
 NYG @  NEMon, Dec 1 20:15 ET | NE +7 | 46.5 | NYG 15 at NE 33NE +7 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ BAL LOSS CIN +7 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 36-24 (60%)
GB @ DET LOSS GB +2.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, in a dome, on turf 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, in a dome 52-33 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
HOU @ IND LOSS HOU +3 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, bad QB, division game 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 29-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 37-22 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
JAC @ TEN WIN JAC -6 2.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, worse QB 17-9 (65%)
LAR @ CAR WIN LAR -10 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, blew someone out last week 50-33 (60%)
NYG @ NE WIN NE -7 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 35-22 (61%)
NYG @ NE TOTALLOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
DEN @ WAS TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
SF @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 35.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 105-79 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NO @ MIA TOTALWIN Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
JAX @ TEN TOTALWIN Under 42.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
BUF @ PIT TOTALWIN Under 44.5 1.0u
- under when windy, line inside 3 97-72 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
CHI @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
LV @ LAC TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
CIN @ BAL TOTALWIN Under 52.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
GB @ DET TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.