Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 17.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-5, +5.5u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 81-82, -26.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  WASThu, Dec 25 13:00 ET | WAS -8.5 | 50.5 | DAL 30 at WAS 23WAS -8.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DEN @  KCThu, Dec 25 20:15 ET | KC -13.5 | 37.5 | DEN 20 at KC 13KC -13.5 closed · KC covered |
 DET @  MINThu, Dec 25 16:30 ET | MIN -7 | 45.5 | DET 10 at MIN 23MIN -7 closed · MIN covered |
 BAL @  GBSat, Dec 27 20:00 ET | GB +2.5 | 38.5 | BAL 41 at GB 24GB +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 HOU @  LACSat, Dec 27 16:30 ET | LAC +1.5 | 40.5 | HOU 20 at LAC 16LAC +1.5 closed · HOU covered |
 ARI @  CINSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | CIN +7 | 52.5 | ARI 14 at CIN 37CIN +7 closed · CIN covered |
 CHI @  SFSun, Dec 28 20:20 ET | SF +3.5 | 51.5 | CHI 38 at SF 42SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | IND -3.5 | 48.5 | JAX 23 at IND 17IND -3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | NYJ -12.5 | 42.5 | NE 42 at NYJ 10NYJ -12.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  TENSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | TEN -1.5 | 39.5 | NO 34 at TEN 26TEN -1.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  LVSun, Dec 28 16:05 ET | LV -3 | 40.5 | NYG 34 at LV 10LV -3 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  BUFSun, Dec 28 16:25 ET | BUF +3 | 45.5 | PHI 13 at BUF 12BUF +3 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | CLE -4.5 | 35.5 | PIT 6 at CLE 13CLE -4.5 closed · CLE covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | CAR -6.5 | 42.5 | SEA 27 at CAR 10CAR -6.5 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  MIASun, Dec 28 13:00 ET | MIA -5.5 | 44.5 | TB 17 at MIA 20MIA -5.5 closed · MIA covered |
 LA @  ATLMon, Dec 29 20:15 ET | ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | LA 24 at ATL 27ATL -7.5 closed · ATL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DEN @ KC WIN DEN -13.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 37-23 (62%)
HOU @ LAC LOSS LAC -1.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, won last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 26-15 (63%)
LAR @ ATL WIN LAR -7.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, in a dome 21-8 (72%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), more rest than the opponent, in a dome 23-10 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+) 41-24 (63%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
NYG @ LV LOSS NYG -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 30-18 (62%)
CHI @ SF WIN SF -3.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 28-13 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 26-13 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 26-15 (63%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ TEN WIN TEN +1.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse record, low total (41 or under) 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 17-11 (61%)
PHI @ BUF TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
PIT @ CLE TOTALWIN Under 35.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NYG @ LV TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
HOU @ LAC TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
DAL @ WAS TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
LA @ ATL TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
CHI @ SF TOTALWIN Over 51.5 1.0u
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 60-38 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.