Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 6.
15 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-4, +0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 24-24, -11.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHI @  NYGThu, Oct 9 20:15 ET | NYG -7 | 40.5 | PHI 17 at NYG 34NYG -7 closed · NYG covered |
 ARI @  INDSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | IND +8.5 | 46.5 | ARI 27 at IND 31IND +8.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CIN @  GBSun, Oct 12 16:25 ET | GB +14 | 44.5 | CIN 18 at GB 27GB +14 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | PIT +5.5 | 37.5 | CLE 9 at PIT 23PIT +5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  CARSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 47.5 | DAL 27 at CAR 30CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 DEN @  NYJSun, Oct 12 09:30 ET | NYJ -7.5 | 43.5 | DEN 13 at NYJ 11NYJ -7.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 DET @  KCSun, Oct 12 20:20 ET | KC +2.5 | 51.5 | DET 17 at KC 30KC +2.5 closed · KC covered |
 LAC @  MIASun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 45.5 | LAC 29 at MIA 27MIA -3.5 closed · MIA covered |
 LA @  BALSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | BAL -7 | 43.5 | LA 17 at BAL 3BAL -7 closed · LA covered |
 NE @  NOSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | NO -3.5 | 46.5 | NE 25 at NO 19NO -3.5 closed · NE covered |
 SEA @  JAXSun, Oct 12 13:00 ET | JAX -1.5 | 47.5 | SEA 20 at JAX 12JAX -1.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  TBSun, Oct 12 16:25 ET | TB +3.5 | 46.5 | SF 19 at TB 30TB +3.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  LVSun, Oct 12 16:05 ET | LV +3.5 | 41.5 | TEN 10 at LV 20LV +3.5 closed · LV covered |
 BUF @  ATLMon, Oct 13 19:15 ET | ATL -3.5 | 49.5 | BUF 14 at ATL 24ATL -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  WASMon, Oct 13 20:15 ET | WAS +5.5 | 49.5 | CHI 25 at WAS 24WAS +5.5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ ATL - model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, in a dome 69-39 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, on turf, high total (48+) 49-28 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 33-19 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DAL @ CAR - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
LAR @ BAL - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 37-23 (62%)
TEN @ LV - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, got blown out last week, in a dome 18-10 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, got blown out last week, in a dome 15-10 (60%)
SF @ TB - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 70-46 (60%)
CHI @ WAS - model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 28-13 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, elite QB 26-13 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, high total (48+) 26-15 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LAC @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
DEN @ NYJ TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
DET @ KC TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 60-38 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.