Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 8.
13 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 32-39, -20.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  LACThu, Oct 23 20:15 ET | LAC +3 | 45.5 | MIN 10 at LAC 37LAC +3 closed · LAC covered |
 BUF @  CARSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | CAR -7 | 47.5 | BUF 40 at CAR 9CAR -7 closed · BUF covered |
 CHI @  BALSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | BAL +2.5 | 45.5 | CHI 16 at BAL 30BAL +2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CLE @  NESun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | NE +7 | 40.5 | CLE 13 at NE 32NE +7 closed · NE covered |
 DAL @  DENSun, Oct 26 16:25 ET | DEN +3.5 | 51.5 | DAL 24 at DEN 44DEN +3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  PITSun, Oct 26 20:20 ET | PIT -3 | 46.5 | GB 35 at PIT 25PIT -3 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  ATLSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | ATL +7 | 44.5 | MIA 34 at ATL 10ATL +7 closed · MIA covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | PHI +7 | 43.5 | NYG 20 at PHI 38PHI +7 closed · PHI covered |
 NYJ @  CINSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | CIN +5.5 | 43.5 | NYJ 39 at CIN 38CIN +5.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SF @  HOUSun, Oct 26 13:00 ET | HOU +2.5 | 41.5 | SF 15 at HOU 26HOU +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Oct 26 16:05 ET | NO -4.5 | 46.5 | TB 23 at NO 3NO -4.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Oct 26 16:25 ET | IND +15.5 | 47.5 | TEN 14 at IND 38IND +15.5 closed · IND covered |
 WAS @  KCMon, Oct 27 20:15 ET | KC +10.5 | 48.5 | WAS 7 at KC 28KC +10.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIA @ ATL - model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, on turf 98-64 (60%)
CHI @ BAL - model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 35-18 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 31-17 (65%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ HOU - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 94-60 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, worse record, bad QB 14-9 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, worse record, worse QB 76-50 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ NO - model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, bad QB, division game 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, bad QB, division game 14-9 (61%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, bad QB, division game 37-24 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ PIT - model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, bad QB, better coach 13-8 (62%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, lost last week, bad QB 13-8 (62%)
TEN @ IND - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 77-50 (61%)
WAS @ KC - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, elite QB 83-49 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 31-19 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week, elite QB 13-8 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CLE @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
SF @ HOU TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.